20150702-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_378kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary
Core Content
This document provides an overview of the regional oil and gas market as of 1 July 2015, including price movements, recent developments, and investment reports from Maybank KE. It highlights key news in Asia, focusing on China, India, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and other regions, along with valuations and analyst ratings for various companies.
Main News Headlines
- China tests new oil and gas trading centre: The Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange (SHPGX) started a test run, aiming to influence global commodity pricing by enabling direct online trading.
- Sinopec and CNOOC preparing bids for Petrobras field stakes: These two Chinese companies are increasing their presence in Brazil's oil sector as Petrobras sells assets to reduce debt.
- Iraq's oil exports hit record levels: Iraq's oil exports rose to a new high in June due to increased production and OPEC's output boost.
- Vietnam investing in port and storage facilities: PetroVietnam is building a terminal on Phu Quoc Island, partly due to its acquisition of Chevron's assets.
- China-Russia gas pipeline construction began: The pipeline, spanning 3,968 kilometers, will transport 38 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually.
- Argentina and China as leading shale gas producers outside North America: Both countries are now commercial shale gas producers, according to a joint study by EIA and ARI.
Major Oil & Gas Prices and Indices (1 July 2015)
| Commodity | Bloomberg Ticker | Units | Last Price | Dollar Chg. 1D | 1D Change | 1W Change | 1M Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil (Brent) | COA COMDTY | USD/bbl. | 62.01 | -1.58 | -2.5% | -2.3% | -5.3% |
| Crude Oil (WTI) | CLA COMDTY | USD/bbl. | 56.96 | -2.51 | -4.2% | -5.5% | -5.8% |
| Dubai Fateh Spot | PGCRDUBA Index | USD/bbl. | 61.83 | 0.92 | 1.5% | -1.7% | -2.5% |
| China Daqing Spot | APCRDAQG Index | USD/bbl. | 57.85 | -0.34 | -0.6% | -4.6% | -4.1% |
| NYMEX Henry Hub | NGA COMDTY | USD/MMBtu | 2.78 | -0.05 | -1.7% | 0.0% | 4.0% |
| LNG Northeast Asia CFR | JKL1 Index | USD/MMBtu | 7.27 | 0.00 | -0.6% | 0.3% | -6.0% |
| Singapore 92 RON Spot | MOGFM92S Index | USD/bbl. | 74.53 | -2.38 | -3.1% | -7.2% | -5.7% |
| Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot | GASL500P Index | USD/bbl. | 76.46 | 0.43 | 0.6% | -2.4% | -4.0% |
| 3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot | N6SH180S Index | USD/mt | 349.23 | 4.11 | 1.2% | -1.7% | -7.0% |
| Gold | XAU CURNCY | USD/Oz | 1,168.79 | -3.56 | -0.3% | -0.6% | -1.7% |
| USD-CNY | USDCNY CURNCY | Fx rate | 6.20 | 0.00 | 0.0% | -0.1% | 0.0% |
| DJI | DJI INDEX | Index | 17,757.91 | 138.40 | 0.8% | -1.2% | -1.6% |
| S&P 500 | SPX INDEX | Index | 2,077.42 | 14.31 | 0.7% | -1.5% | -1.6% |
Our Latest Reports
Petronas Chemicals
- Rating: HOLD
- Target Price: MYR6.60 (up from MYR5.35)
- Key Points:
- Petrochemical ASPs are down 25% YTD in USD and 13% in MYR.
- Promising ASP outlook with weaker MYR against USD could increase earnings forecasts.
NewOcean Energy
- Rating: BUY
- Target Price: HKD7.70 (105% upside)
- Key Points:
- Volume and margin are on track for FY15 projections.
- Margin trend, forex impact, and dividend payout ratio were frequently discussed.
Trans-Asia Oil & Energy Development
- Rating: BUY
- Key Points:
- Earnings and target price reduced due to delays and lower Feed-in Tariff.
- Earnings expected to triple in 2016 with the operation of a coal-fired power plant.
- Valuations remain attractive.
Gas Malaysia
- Rating: HOLD
- Target Price: MYR2.65 (12% reduction)
- Key Points:
- FY15 spread guidance increased but is lower than the previous base.
- IBR may begin in January 2016, with potential pass-through mechanisms.
- Earnings revised with significant changes in FY15 to FY17.
Company Valuations (Asia)
| Company | Ticker | Maybank KE Rating | Price 1-Jul | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USDb) | 90D T/O (USDm) | PER (2015E) | PER (2016E) | EV/EBITDA (2015E) | EV/EBITDA (2016E) | ROE % | P/BV (x) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | Sell | 8.65 | 8.30 | 304.0 | 163.8 | 25.1 | 15.7 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | Hold | 6.69 | 7.70 | 126.3 | 140.3 | 18.5 | 13.1 | 7.1 | 6.1 | 5.6 | 1.1 | 2.7 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | Buy | 11.00 | 16.80 | 63.4 | 131.9 | 16.0 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 6.3 | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 313.9 | NR | 42.2 | 20.8 | 11.3 | 10.0 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 13.3 | 1.4 | 3.1 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 1,005.7 | NR | 51.2 | 66.4 | 13.5 | 12.5 | 11.3 | 9.9 | 11.2 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | Hold | 184.3 | 198.00 | 5.4 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 8.1 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 11.7 | 0.6 | 4.9 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 888.0 | NR | 10.1 | 17.6 | 20.4 | 12.7 | 10.2 | 7.6 | 15.2 | 3.0 | 1.7 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 738.6 | NR | 3.9 | 14.9 | 18.9 | 11.3 | 9.0 | 7.7 | 8.8 | 1.7 | 2.3 |
| PetroVietnam Gas | GAS VN | Buy | 62,000 | 92,000 | 5.4 | 1.2 | 11.9 | 10.9 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 26.1 | 2.9 | 5.1 |
Analyst Contact Information
- HK/CHINA: Howard Wong, (852) 22680648, howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
- INDIA: Jigar Shah, (91) 226623 2632, jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
- INDONESIA: Pandu Anugrah, (62) 21 2557 1137, pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
- MALAYSIA: Liaw Thong Jung, (603) 22978688, tjiaw@maybank-ib.com
- PHILIPPINES: Michael Bengson, (63) 28498840, micheal_bengson@maybank-atrke.com
- SINGAPORE: Yeah Chee Keong, (65) 6231 5842, yeakcheekeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
- THAILAND: Sutthichai Kumworachai, (66) 2658 6300 x 1400, sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
- VIETNAM: Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen, (84) 844555888 x 8082, chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
- VIETNAM: Truong Quang Binh, (84) 444555888 x 8087, binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
Asian Oil & Gas Valuation Summary
- Average multiples and yields are weighted by market capitalization.
- Key companies:
- CNOOC LTD: Buy, with a target price of USD16.80
- Cairn India: Hold, with a target price of USD198.00
- INTEX: NR, with a price of USD1,387
- JAPEX: NR, with a price of USD3,890
- Gas Malaysia: Hold, with a target price of MYR2.65
- Petronas Gas: Hold, with a target price of MYR24.00
- PetroVietnam Gas: Buy, with a target price of USD92,000
Asian Oil-Service Valuation Summary
- Key companies:
- Barakah Offshore: Buy, with a target price of USD1.15
- Bumi Armada: Buy, with a target price of USD1.60
- Yinson: Buy, with a target price of USD4.35
- Keppel: Hold, with a target price of USD8.50
- Ezion: Buy, with a target price of USD1.57
- Cosco Corp: Sell, with a target price of USD0.43
Key Information
- Market Trends: Prices for crude oil and gas have declined, while some indices have seen mixed performance.
- Investment Outlook: Some companies are rated as BUY due to promising earnings and valuations, while others are rated as HOLD or SELL.
- Strategic Moves: Vietnam is investing in infrastructure to support oil product trade, and China is expanding its gas pipeline to Russia.
- Shale Gas Production: Argentina and China have become significant players in commercial shale gas production outside North America.
- Valuation Metrics: The document includes PER and EV/EBITDA ratios, along with ROE and P/BV, to evaluate companies.
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