20150707-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_375kb

Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 7 Jul 2015

Core Content

• Oil Prices: Crude oil prices fell significantly overnight, with Brent dropping 6.3% to USD56.54/b and WTI falling 7.7% to USD52.53/b. This was attributed to Greece's rejection of debt bailout terms and concerns over Iran's potential return to the global oil market.
• Market Impact: The selloff in oil prices affected the broader market, with the Standard & Poor's GSCI commodities index dropping 4.9%. This impacted companies like Petrobras, which saw its shares fall to a 12-week low.
• Gas Projects: AGL Energy Ltd. reported a $327 million writedown on underperforming gas projects and planned additional asset sales.
• Iran's Influence: If Iran's nuclear deal is finalized, Russia could be the biggest oil-market loser due to increased supply from Iran.
• China's Oil Production: CNOOC's new output is expected to increase China's oil production beyond the 2014 record, but this will add to the global oil glut.
• US Oil Supply: The US oil supply exceeded demand, leading to a drop in prices. This was due to an increase in the number of active oil rigs, which rose to 640.

Main Points

• Oil Market Dynamics: The global oil market is experiencing a significant oversupply, with prices nearly halved over the past year.
• Regional Impact:
  • Asia: CNOOC is rated as a "Buy" with an increased target price. Other companies like Gas Malaysia and Petronas Gas are rated "Hold".
  • India: ONGC and Reliance Industries are not rated, while Cairn India is rated "Hold".
  • Japan: Companies like INTEX and JAPEX are not rated.
  • Malaysia: Gas Malaysia and Petronas Gas are rated "Hold".
  • Philippines: Petron Corp and Phoenix Petro are rated "Buy".
  • Vietnam: PetroVietnam Gas is rated "Buy".
• Market Outlook:
  • CNOOC: Earnings and target price are expected to increase, with a promising outlook on petrochemical ASPs.
  • NewOcean Energy: Maintains a "BUY" rating with a target price of HKD7.70, implying 105% upside.
  • Trans-Asia Oil & Energy Development: Maintains a "BUY" rating despite delays in plant commissioning and lower Feed-in Tariff.
  • Gas Malaysia: Target price reduced, but valuations remain attractive.

Key Information

• Valuation Metrics: The tables provide detailed financial metrics including price, target price, market capitalization, 90-day trading volume, and various financial ratios such as PER, EV/EBITDA, ROE, P/BV, and Yield.
• Analyst Ratings:
  • China: CNOOC is rated "Buy", Petronas Chemicals is "HOLD".
  • India: ONGC and Reliance Industries are not rated, while Cairn India is "Hold".
  • Malaysia: Gas Malaysia and Petronas Gas are "Hold".
  • Philippines: Petron Corp and Phoenix Petro are "Buy".
  • Vietnam: PetroVietnam Gas is "Buy".
• Market Conditions:
  • US Oil Market: Oversupply is a major factor in the price drop.
  • China: The stock market's performance also influenced oil prices.
  • Global Supply: OPEC and Russia are producing at near record highs, contributing to the global oversupply.

Summary Table

Analysts Contact

• HK/CHINA: Howard Wong, (852) 22680648, howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
• INDIA: Jigar Shah, (91) 226623 2632, jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
• INDONESIA: Pandu Anugrah, (62) 21 2557 1137, pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
• MALAYSIA: Liaw Thong Jung, (603) 2297 8688, tjiaw@maybank-ib.com
• PHILIPPINES: Michael Bengson, (63) 28498840, micheal_bengson@maybank-atrke.com
• SINGAPORE: Yeah Chee Keong, (65) 6231 5842, yeakcheeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
• THAILAND: Sutthichai Kumworachai, (66) 2658 6300 x 1400, sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
• VIETNAM: Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen, (84) 844555888 × 8082, chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
• VIETNAM: Truong Quang Binh, (84) 444555888 × 8087, binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn