20140502-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_569kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 02 May 2014
Core Content
This document provides an overview of the oil and gas market activity and valuation data for various companies across Asia, including China, India, Malaysia, Japan, South Korea, and others, as of 01 May 2014. It also includes recent news headlines and analyst contacts.
Main News Headlines
- Gazprom-CNPC gas deal likely to be signed in May: Gazprom and CNPC are set to sign a gas supply contract in May, aiming to enhance existing cooperation.
- Sinopec acquires 15% stake in Petronas' USD11b LNG project: Sinopec has joined the LNG project in Canada, becoming the fourth partner.
- China gives up Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project: China has withdrawn from the project due to concerns about U.S. sanctions.
- Jereh to supply CNOOC with 6 compressor packages: Jereh, a Chinese oilfield services firm, will supply CNOOC with six compressor packages.
- Japan and South Korea to maintain Iranian crude import volumes: Despite a six-month suspension, Japan and South Korea will continue importing Iranian crude oil.
- Indian Petronet's LNG regas volume slightly down YoY: Petronet, India's top LNG importer, reported a slight decrease in regas volume due to the new Kochi terminal not contributing significantly.
- Woodside to prepare for exploration well in Western Australia: Woodside is preparing for an exploration well in the Exmouth subbasin.
- PwC: Oil & Gas M&A activity hit record high in 1Q14: M&A activity in the oil and gas sector exceeded USD19.8 billion in the first quarter of 2014, with upstream deals accounting for 63% of the total.
- LG Chem continues feeding LPG into aromatics units in May: LG Chem continues using LPG as feedstock in its aromatics units due to attractive margins.
Key Market Information
- Crude Oil (Brent): Last price USD107.76, down 0.36 USD, -0.3% change.
- Crude Oil (WTI): Last price USD99.29, down 1.55 USD, -1.5% change.
- Dubai Fateh Spot: Last price USD104.86, down 1.60 USD, -1.5% change.
- China Daqing Spot: Last price USD110.83, down 1.56 USD, -1.4% change.
- NYMEX Henry Hub: Last price USD4.73, down 0.07 USD, -1.4% change.
- LNG Northeast Asia CFR: Last price USD14.50, unchanged, -1.7% change over the month.
- Gold: Last price USD1,284.25, down USD12.49, -1.0% change.
- USD-CNY: Exchange rate 6.26, up 0.01, +0.1% change.
- DJI: Index at 16,558.87, up 110.13, +0.7% change.
- S&P 500: Index at 1,883.68, up 14.25, +0.8% change.
Valuation Comparison (Asia Oil & Gas)
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price 01-May | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USDm) | P/E (2013) | P/E (2014E) | EV/EBITDA (2013) | EV/EBITDA (2014E) | RoE % | P/B (X) | Yield % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | NR | 8.98 | NR | 219.0 | 100.0 | 10.0 | 10.1 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 11.8 | 1.1 | 4.5 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | NR | 6.85 | NR | 95.7 | 119.3 | 9.5 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 12.2 | 1.1 | 4.4 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | NR | 12.82 | NR | 73.8 | 112.4 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 17.3 | 1.3 | 4.4 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 325.10 | NR | 46.2 | 22.2 | 11.5 | 10.5 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 16.8 | 1.8 | 2.9 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 935.80 | NR | 50.3 | 54.7 | 13.2 | 11.4 | 10.9 | 8.8 | 11.9 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | buy | 335.15 | 443.00 | 10.6 | 14.9 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 25.1 | 1.3 | 3.4 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 454.90 | NR | 5.5 | 11.3 | 17.5 | 15.7 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 11.5 | 2.0 | 2.4 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 321.85 | NR | 1.8 | 7.5 | 21.7 | 11.8 | 12.7 | 10.6 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 2.6 |
| Petronas Gas | PTG MK | hold | 23.50 | 23.50 | 14.3 | 4.3 | 22.4 | 28.0 | 17.5 | 15.2 | 21.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 |
| PTT Global Chemical PCL | PTTGC TB | buy | 69.75 | 87.00 | 9.7 | 22.7 | 9.5 | 8.4 | 7.2 | 7.5 | 14.4 | 1.3 | 2.3 |
| Thai Oil PCL | TOP TB | sell | 52.25 | 65.00 | 3.3 | 6.4 | 10.3 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 11.7 | 1.2 | 5.9 |
| PetroVietnam Gas | GAS VN | buy | 99,500 | 103,000 | 9.0 | 1.6 | 15.3 | 13.0 | 10.4 | 8.3 | 40.6 | 5.6 | 3.1 |
| Asian Oil & Gas average | - | - | - | - | - | - | 11.9 | 11.0 | 7.1 | 6.2 | 13.2 | 1.4 | 3.7 |
Analyst Contacts
- Howard Wong (HK/CHINA): (852) 22680648, howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
- Liaw Thong Jung (MALAYSIA): (603) 2297 8688, tjiaw@maybank-ib.com
- Jigar Shah (INDIA): (91) 22 6623 2601, jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
- Yeast Chee Keong (SINGAPORE): (65) 6432 1460, yeakcheekeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
- Sutthichai Kumworachai (THAILAND): (66) 2658 6300 x 1400, sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
- Pandu Anugrah (INDONESIA): (62) 21 2557 1137, pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
- Laura Dy-Liacco (PHILIPPINES): (63) 28498840, laura_dyliacco@maybank-atrke.com
- Bianca Solema (PHILIPPINES): (63) 28498835, bianca_solema@maybank-atrke.com
- Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (VIETNAM): (84) 844555888 × 8082, chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
- Truong Quang Binh (VIETNAM): (84) 4 44 555 888 × 8087, binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
Summary of Key Points
- Market Trends: Crude oil prices (Brent and WTI) and gold prices declined slightly in the first week of May 2014.
- LNG Projects: Sinopec joined a USD11b LNG project in Malaysia, and Japan and South Korea will continue importing Iranian crude oil.
- M&A Activity: PwC reported a record USD19.8 billion in oil and gas M&A activity in 1Q14, with upstream deals accounting for 63% of the total.
- Valuation Insights: The valuation data indicates that several companies are trading at varying multiples, with some showing potential for growth and others facing challenges.
- Exploration: Woodside is preparing for an exploration well off Western Australia.
- Investor Sentiment: Analysts have varying ratings, with some recommending 'buy' and others 'sell' based on company performance and market conditions.
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