20150714-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_375kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 14 Jul 2015
Core Content Overview
This document provides an overview of the oil and gas market trends and valuations across Asia, focusing on key players and recent developments in the sector. It includes price movements, company-specific updates, and analyst ratings.
Key Market Trends
-
Oil Prices:
- Brent crude fell by 1.5% to USD57.85/b.
- WTI crude fell by 1.0% to USD52.20/b.
- The drop in oil prices is attributed to ongoing Iran nuclear talks and a decline in U.S. shale oil production.
- Shale oil output is expected to drop to 5.36 million barrels per day in August, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline.
-
Gas Prices:
- LNG Northeast Asia CFR fell by 2.6% to USD7.40/MMBtu.
- Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot fell by 1.1% to USD70.77/bbl.
- 3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot rose slightly to USD327.36/mt.
-
Other Commodities:
- Gold prices fell by 0.5% to USD1,157.98/Oz.
- USD-CNY exchange rate remained stable at 6.21.
Key News Highlights
-
Shale Oil Output:
- U.S. shale oil production is expected to drop to a record low due to a decline in drilling activity.
- The decline in production is expected to be significant, with the Eagle Ford field projected to drop by 91,000 barrels per day in August.
-
China's Energy Strategy:
- CEFC China Energy is seeking upstream acquisitions and expanding its oil trading operations.
- PetroChina reached a pretrial settlement with an NGO for sea pollution in Dalian, agreeing to pay USD32 million for pollution treatment.
- China has shown interest in U.S. shale oil, with previous investments totaling over USD8.6 billion between 2009 and 2013.
-
Renewable Energy Impact:
- Cheap oil prices are hindering the adoption of renewable energy in poorer nations, as they continue to rely on traditional energy sources.
Latest Reports and Analyst Ratings
-
Petronas Chemicals:
- Maintained HOLD rating.
- Target price raised to MYR6.60, with a potential upside due to promising ASPs and weaker MYR against USD.
-
NewOcean Energy:
- Maintained BUY rating.
- Target price set at HKD7.70, implying 105% upside.
- Volume and margin are on track to meet FY15 projections.
-
Trans-Asia Oil & Energy Development:
- Maintained BUY rating.
- Earnings expected to more than triple in 2016 with the operation of a coal-fired power plant.
- Valuations are considered attractive.
-
Gas Malaysia:
- Maintained HOLD rating.
- FY15 spread guidance increased to MYR1.58/mmBTU, but decreased from the previous base of MYR2.02/mmBTU.
- Target price lowered to MYR2.65, with earnings revised by -12%.
Company Valuations and Performance
| Company | Ticker | Rating | Price (13-Jul) | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USD) | 90D T/O (USD) | PER 2015E | PER 2016E | EV/EBITDA 2015E | EV/EBITDA 2016E | ROE % | P/BV (x) | Yield (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | Sell | 8.08 | 8.30 | 363.5 | 160.2 | 23.5 | 14.6 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 1.9 |
| Sinopec - H | 386 HK | Hold | 6.22 | 7.70 | 133.6 | 138.3 | 17.2 | 12.2 | 6.8 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 1.0 | 2.9 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | Buy | 10.14 | 16.80 | 58.4 | 128.7 | 14.7 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 6.3 | 0.9 | 2.4 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 293.9 | NR | 39.7 | 20.8 | 10.6 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 13.3 | 1.3 | 3.4 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 1,001.8 | NR | 51.1 | 65.6 | 13.5 | 12.4 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 11.2 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | Hold | 168.8 | 198.00 | 5.0 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 7.4 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 11.7 | 0.5 | 5.4 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 881.8 | NR | 10.1 | 19.9 | 20.3 | 12.4 | 10.2 | 7.6 | 15.2 | 3.0 | 1.7 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 804.3 | NR | 4.3 | 17.0 | 20.6 | 12.3 | 9.4 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| Petron Corp | PCOR PM | Buy | 8.40 | 11.25 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 19.2 | 11.4 | 8.3 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| Phoenix Petro | PNX PM | Buy | 3.15 | 5.00 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 12.9 | 0.6 | 3.2 |
| PTT Global Chemical PCL | PTTGC TB | Buy | 66.50 | 87.00 | 8.8 | 26.3 | 10.7 | 9.5 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 11.6 | 1.2 | 4.2 |
| PTT PCL | PTT TB | Buy | 341.0 | 395.00 | 28.7 | 50.1 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 11.7 | 1.3 | 3.6 |
| Thai Oil PCL | TOP TB | Sell | 54.50 | 65.00 | 3.3 | 10.9 | 10.5 | 10.1 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 12.3 | 1.2 | 4.2 |
| Asian Refiners average | - | - | - | - | - | - | 14.1 | 12.8 | 8.2 | 7.0 | 7.8 | 1.2 | 2.3 |
Analysts
- Howard Wong (HK/CHINA): Contact (852) 22680648, Email: howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
- Jigar Shah (INDIA): Contact (91) 226623 2632, Email: jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
- Pandu Anugrah (INDONESIA): Contact (62) 21 2557 1137, Email: pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
- Liaw Thong Jung (MALAYSIA): Contact (603) 22978688, Email: tjiaw@maybank-ib.com
- Michael Bengson (PHILIPPINES): Contact (63) 28498840, Email: micheal_bengson@maybank-atrke.com
- Yeah Chee Keong (SINGAPORE): Contact (65) 6231 5842, Email: yeakcheeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
- Sutthichai Kumworachai (THAILAND): Contact (66) 2658 6300 x 1400, Email: sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
- Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (VIETNAM): Contact (84) 844555888 x 8082, Email: chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
- Truong Quang Binh (VIETNAM): Contact (84) 444555888 x 8087, Email: binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
Summary
- Price Movements: Crude oil prices fell, with Brent and WTI down 1.5% and 1.0% respectively, while gas prices and LNG prices showed mixed trends.
- Shale Output: U.S. shale oil output is expected to drop to a record low, with the Eagle Ford field projected to decline by 91,000 barrels per day.
- China's Energy Strategy: CEFC China Energy is expanding its energy operations, and PetroChina reached a pretrial settlement for sea pollution.
- Analyst Ratings: Multiple companies in Asia, including CNOOC LTD, Petron Corp, and Phoenix Petro, received BUY ratings, while others like PetroChina - H were rated SELL.
- Valuations: Valuations for Asian oil and gas companies are varied, with some showing attractive prospects and others facing challenges in earnings and growth.
展开完整摘要
试读结束，高清完整版pdf/doc/ppt,请点下载
