20140327-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_568kb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary
Core Content
This document provides an overview of the oil and gas sector in Asia, with a focus on recent price changes, company performance, and analyst ratings. It includes news headlines, valuation comparisons, and market insights from Maybank Kim Eng and Bloomberg.
Main News Headlines
- China trims gasoline and diesel prices: China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced a reduction in the state price guidance for gasoline and diesel by CNY135 and CNY130 per tonne, respectively, effective from 24:00 on 26 Mar 2014. Marketing margins were maintained.
- China refining margins stable: Major Chinese oil refineries saw stable refining margins in 2H March, with refiners using Oman crude experiencing a slight increase and those using Daqing crude facing a decline due to falling LPG prices.
- Weak oil product demand in China: Weak demand in China led to no spot deals for oil products, with companies like Formosa Petrochemical shipping only under contract for April.
- Petronas FLNG shipment: Petronas confirmed its first FLNG vessel, PFLNG-1, will be delivered in early April 2014 and expects its first cargo shipment in 2016. The vessel has a production capacity of 1.5mtpa.
- India's energy independence goal: India aims to achieve energy independence by 2030, requiring a significant increase in domestic crude oil production and reserves.
- PTTEP's production target: PTTEP plans to double its production output by 2020, targeting 600k bpd, with an 8% CAGR in production, driven by technological advancements.
- Nan Ya Plastics bond issuance: Nan Ya Plastics received board approval to issue up to USD500m in unsecured bonds to finance future capex and improve capital structure.
Analyst Ratings and Target Prices
- Petron Corp: Maintained BUY with a target price of PHP15.90. FY13 profit increased by 187%, but 4Q13 earnings declined by 39% YoY. Full commercial operations of RMP-2 are expected by 2015.
- SapuraKencana Petroleum: Results within range, with FY14 meeting expectations. Target price is MYR5.30. Newfield Malaysia is expected to boost group earnings.
- Ezion Holdings: Reiterated BUY with a target price of SGD2.90. The company is well-positioned with opportunities in the liftboat market, especially in Southeast Asia.
- Malaysia and Singapore Oil & Gas: Maintained OVERWEIGHT. Key drivers include rig building, drilling, OSV upcycles, and PETRONAS capex. Top BUYs include Bumi Armada, Dialog, SAKP, Perisai, and Perdana for Malaysia, and SembCorp Marine, Ezion, Mermaid, and Nam Cheong for Singapore.
Oil & Gas Prices and Indexes (26 Mar 2014)
| Product | Bloomberg Ticker | Units | Last Price | Absolute Change | 1D | 1W | 1M |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Oil (WTI) | CLA COMDTY | USD/bbl. | 100.18 | 0.99 | 1.0% | 1.0% | -1.8% |
| Crude Oil (Brent) | COA COMDTY | USD/bbl. | 107.03 | 0.04 | 0.0% | 1.1% | -2.9% |
| Dubai Fateh Spot | PGCRDUBA Index | USD/barrel | 103.79 | 0.14 | 0.1% | 0.7% | -2.4% |
| China Daqing Spot | APCRDAQG Index | USD/barrel | 105.44 | 0.16 | 0.2% | 0.7% | -4.4% |
| NYMEX Henry Hub | NGA COMDTY | USD/MMBtu | 4.39 | -0.00 | -0.6% | -2.2% | -5.1% |
| Singapore 92 RON Spot | MOGFM92S Index | USD/barrel | 116.64 | 0.11 | 0.1% | 0.2% | -0.3% |
| Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot | GASL500P Index | USD/gallon | 122.32 | 0.00 | 0.0% | 1.4% | -2.0% |
| 3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot | N6SH180S Index | USD/mt | 606.84 | 1.03 | 0.2% | 0.3% | -1.9% |
| Gold | XAU CURNCY | USD/Oz | 1,304.69 | -6.48 | -0.5% | -1.9% | -2.4% |
| USD-JPY | USDJPY CURNCY | Fx rate | 101.98 | -0.28 | -0.3% | -0.3% | -0.5% |
| USD-EUR | USDEUR CURNCY | Fx rate | 0.73 | 0.00 | 0.3% | 0.4% | -0.3% |
| USD-CNY | USDCNY CURNCY | Fx rate | 6.21 | 0.01 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 1.8% |
| DJI | DJI INDEX | Index | 16,268.99 | -98.89 | -0.6% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| S&P 500 | SPX INDEX | Index | 1,852.56 | -13.06 | -0.7% | -0.4% | 0.3% |
| 30Y T-Bill | USGG30YR INDEX | Yield | 3.54 | -0.05 | -1.4% | -3.1% | -4.2% |
Valuation Comparison (Asia)
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price 26-Mar | Target Price | Mkt Cap | 90D T/O | P/E 2013E | P/E 2014E | EV/EBITDA 2013E | EV/EBITDA 2014E | RoE % | P/B | Yield % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | NR | 8.36 | NR | 221.7 | 92.2 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 5.1 | 11.8 | 1.1 | 4.8 |
| Sinopoe - H | 386 HK | NR | 6.86 | NR | 98.1 | 111.9 | 9.5 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 12.2 | 1.1 | 4.4 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | NR | 12.04 | NR | 69.3 | 112.8 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 18.9 | 1.2 | 4.2 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 325.30 | NR | 46.2 | 17.2 | 11.5 | 10.5 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 16.8 | 1.8 | 2.9 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 891.20 | NR | 47.8 | 46.3 | 12.6 | 12.3 | 9.9 | 9.4 | 11.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | buy | 332.65 | 443.00 | 10.5 | 12.0 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 25.1 | 1.3 | 3.5 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 445.15 | NR | 5.3 | 8.5 | 17.1 | 15.3 | 7.3 | 8.5 | 11.5 | 1.9 | 2.5 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 292.45 | NR | 1.6 | 5.6 | 19.8 | 28.2 | 18.0 | 15.3 | 21.4 | 0.7 | 2.9 |
| Petron Corp | PCOR PM | buy | 13.40 | 15.90 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 33.5 | 38.3 | 13.6 | 10.6 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 |
| Phoenix Petroleum Philippines | PNX PM | buy | 5.01 | 7.22 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 11.4 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 6.6 | 12.7 | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Formosa Petrochemical | 6505 TT | NR | 75.50 | NR | 23.5 | 13.7 | 26.8 | 25.1 | 18.3 | 16.0 | 12.0 | 3.0 | 3.3 |
| S-Oil | 010950 KS | NR | 61,000 | NR | 6.4 | 16.5 | 24.6 | 12.4 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 10.3 | 1.3 | 2.2 |
| SK Innovation | 096770 KS | NR | 121,500 | NR | 10.5 | 36.1 | 47.9 | 9.1 | 20.6 | 7.3 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 2.6 |
| GS Holdings | 078930 KS | NR | 48,000 | NR | 4.1 | 11.3 | 17.7 | 7.6 | 16.6 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 0.9 | 2.8 |
| PTT Global Chemical PCL | PTTGC TB | buy | 71.75 | 87.00 | 9.9 | 26.0 | 9.7 | 8.7 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 14.4 | 1.4 | 2.3 |
| PTT PCL | PTT TB | buy | 295.00 | 395.00 | 25.9 | 33.7 | 8.9 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 21.4 | 4.6 | 2.3 |
| Thai Oil PCL | TOP TB | sell | 51.75 | 65.00 | 3.2 | 7.2 | 10.2 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 11.7 | 1.2 | 6.0 |
| PetroVietnam Gas | GAS VN | buy | 82,000 | 103,000.00 | 7.4 | 1.7 | 13.5 | 12.3 | 8.4 | 7.7 | 40.8 | 4.6 | 6.9 |
Oil & Gas Service Valuation Comparison
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price 26-Mar | Target Price | Mkt Cap | 90D T/O | P/E 2013E | P/E 2014E | EV/EBITDA 2013E | EV/EBITDA 2014E | RoE % | P/B | Yield % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anton Oilfield Services | 3337 HK | NR | 4.95 | NR | 1.4 | 11.5 | 22.0 | 18.7 | 10.6 | 8.7 | 18.0 | 3.3 | 1.6 |
| China Oilfield Services-H | 2883 HK | NR | 18.80 | NR | 12.9 | 34.3 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 8.1 | 7.5 | 17.2 | 1.5 | 2.9 |
| Chu Kong Petroleum | 1938 HK | NR | 2.24 | NR | 0.3 | 0.4 | 16.3 | 6.0 | 16.5 | 10.0 | 3.9 | 0.5 | 0.9 |
| Hilong Holding | 1623 HK | NR | 4.21 | NR | 0.9 | 4.5 | 16.1 | 11.0 | 7.1 | 6.0 | 17.5 | 2.3 | 2.6 |
| Honghua Group | 196 HK | NR | 1.99 | NR | 0.8 | 4.8 | 9.3 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 13.4 | 0.9 | 3.7 |
| Sinopec Engineering-H | 2386 HK | NR | 8.73 | NR | 5.0 | 9.5 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 18.1 | 1.2 | 4.5 |
| SPT Energy | 1251 HK | NR | 3.96 | NR | 0.8 | 4.8 | 15.9 | 11.9 | 6.9 | 5.4 | 18.7 | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| Bumi Armada | BAB MK | buy | 3.89 | 5.00 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 26.4 | 18.7 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 10.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 |
| Dialog | DLG MK | buy | 3.58 | 3.90 | 2.6 | 4.7 | 44.4 | 30.3 | 28.5 | 26.8 | 15.2 | 6.4 | 0.9 |
| Sapurakencana | SAKP MK | buy | 4.39 | 5.30 | 8.0 | 12.4 | 41.9 | 27.8 | 12.5 | 19.3 | 9.2 | 3.5 | 0.0 |
| Perdana Petroleum | PETR MK | buy | 1.86 | 2.55 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 21.5 | 14.5 | 11.0 | 10.8 | 12.1 | 2.4 | 0.0 |
| Perisai Petroleum | PPT MK | buy | 1.56 | 1.95 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 21.4 | 18.6 | 12.8 | 24.8 | 9.7 | 1.7 | 0.0 |
| Petra Energy | PENB MK | NR | 2.35 | NR | 0.2 | 0.2 | 64.4 | 18.1 | 8.3 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
Key Information
- Price Adjustments: China's state price guidance for oil products was adjusted, with gasoline and diesel prices trimmed by CNY135 and CNY130 per tonne, respectively.
- Refining Margins: Chinese refining margins remained stable for major refiners, with slight variations based on crude oil feedstock.
- Weak Demand: Weak demand in China led to no spot deals, with companies like Formosa Petrochemical focusing on contract-based shipping.
- FLNG Development: Petronas confirmed its first FLNG vessel's delivery and expected cargo shipment in 2016, indicating significant investment in liquefaction technology.
- Energy Independence: India aims to achieve energy independence by 2030, requiring a substantial increase in domestic oil production and reserves.
- Production Growth: PTTEP targets an 8% CAGR in production through 2020, driven by technological advancements.
- Bond Issuance: Nan Ya Plastics plans to issue up to USD500m in unsecured bonds to finance future projects and improve capital structure.
- Valuation Trends: The valuation of oil and gas companies in Asia varies significantly, with some companies showing strong growth potential and others facing challenges.
- Market Outlook: Analysts maintain a positive outlook for several companies, with BUY ratings and target prices reflecting confidence in their future performance.
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