20140821-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_12页_2mb
报告摘要
Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 21 August 2014
Core Content Overview
The document provides an analysis of oil and gas market trends and company-specific updates from 21 August 2014. It includes price movements of key commodities, recent news in the industry, and valuation reports for several companies across Asia, including Malaysia, India, Japan, and others.
Major Oil & Gas Price Movements
- Brent Crude Oil: Increased by 0.7% to $102.25, with a 1-day dollar change of $0.69.
- WTI Crude Oil: Increased by 0.6% to $93.45, with a 1-day dollar change of $0.59.
- Henry Hub Natural Gas: Decreased by 1.4% to $3.82, with a 1-day dollar change of -$0.05.
- LNG Northeast Asia CFR: Remained flat at $12.00, with a 1-day dollar change of $0.00.
- Singapore 92 RON Spot: Decreased by 0.1% to $108.58, with a 1-day dollar change of -$0.08.
- Gold: Decreased by 0.2% to $1,293.16, with a 1-day dollar change of -$2.78.
- USD-CNY Exchange Rate: Remained flat at 6.14, with a 1-day dollar change of $0.00.
- Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): Increased by 0.4% to 16,979.13, with a 1-day dollar change of $59.54.
- S&P 500: Increased by 0.2% to 1,986.51, with a 1-day dollar change of $4.91.
News Highlights
- Hess Corp: May participate in Ghana's offshore development, with the Petroleum Commission expecting a third appraisal well.
- Petrobras & YPFB: Resolved a gas dispute, with Petrobras agreeing to pay USD434m for fuel supplies.
- Bumi Armada: Secured a USD3b FPSO contract with Eni, set to begin in 4Q16.
- Inpex: Further farmed down its stake in the Ichthys project, reducing it to 62.245%.
- Hamas: Fired rockets at Noble Energy's Noa platform but missed the target.
- Woodside: Identified increasing M&A opportunities in the oil & gas sector.
Company Reports
Bumi Armada
- Target Price: MYR4.55
- Key Points: Secured a 10-year firm contract with 5 annual extension options; expected to start production in 2017, contributing MYR20m net profit from 2018 and MYR0.25 to TP.
- Rating: Maintain BUY.
Perdana Petroleum
- Target Price: MYR2.55
- Key Points: 1H14 core earnings accounted for 46–48% of full-year forecasts; offers strong growth potential with undemanding valuations.
- Rating: Maintain BUY.
NewOcean Energy
- Target Price: HKD8.88
- Key Points: Reiterated BUY, but lowered FY15F earnings by 8% due to LPG volume uncertainties; 1H14 net profit rose 5% YoY, but auto LNG strategy faces short-term challenges.
- Rating: Maintain BUY.
Swiber Holdings
- Target Price: SGD0.57
- Key Points: Weak 2Q14 with a net loss of USD2.5m; orderbook dropped to USD610m; TP cut to SGD0.57.
- Rating: Maintain HOLD.
Mermaid Maritime
- Target Price: SGD0.60
- Key Points: 3QFY9/14 PATMI fell short due to reduced contributions from MTR-2; operating margins increased significantly; Maintain BUY.
Valuation Comparison (Asia)
| Company | Ticker | KE Rating | Price (20-Aug) | Target Price | Mkt Cap (USDm) | 90D T/O (USDm) | P/E (2014E) | P/E (2015E) | EV/EBITDA (2014E) | EV/EBITDA (2015E) | RoE % | P/B (X) | Yield % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PetroChina - H | 857 HK | Buy | 10.76 | 11.50 | 238.9 | 96.6 | 11.8 | 10.6 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 11.3 | 1.3 | 3.8 |
| Sinopoe - H | 386 HK | Hold | 7.65 | 6.85 | 104.9 | 73.2 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 11.7 | 1.2 | 3.9 |
| CNOOC LTD | 883 HK | Hold | 15.16 | 14.34 | 87.3 | 100.4 | 9.9 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 15.1 | 1.4 | 3.6 |
| ONGC | ONGC IN | NR | 424.00 | NR | 59.8 | 51.3 | 11.5 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 17.7 | 1.9 | 2.7 |
| Reliance Industries | RIL IN | NR | 998.35 | NR | 53.2 | 64.2 | 12.3 | 11.0 | 8.4 | 7.3 | 12.3 | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Cairn India | CAIR IN | Buy | 323.10 | 443.00 | 10.0 | 15.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 23.6 | 4.5 | 4.3 |
| BPCL | BPCL IN | NR | 667.00 | NR | 7.9 | 19.6 | 16.0 | 14.4 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 15.2 | 2.3 | 2.0 |
| HPCL | HPCL IN | NR | 447.90 | NR | 2.5 | 14.8 | 10.5 | 8.5 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 9.7 | 1.0 | 2.7 |
| Petron Corp | PCOR PM | Buy | 11.62 | 16.80 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 14.5 | 7.4 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 6.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| Phoenix Petro | PNX PM | Buy | 5.50 | 7.05 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 8.9 | 7.5 | 8.9 | 7.9 | 13.9 | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| PTT Global Chemical PCL | PTTGC TB | Buy | 66.50 | 87.00 | 9.4 | 25.0 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 13.0 | 1.2 | 4.7 |
| Thai Oil PCL | TOP TB | Sell | 52.25 | 65.00 | 3.3 | 5.6 | 12.5 | 10.8 | 7.8 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 1.1 | 3.8 |
Analyst Contacts
- Howard Wong (HK/CHINA): (852) 22680648, howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
- Jigar Shah (INDIA): (91) 2266232601, jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
- Pandu Anugrah (INDONESIA): (62) 21 2557 1137, pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
- Liaw Thong Jung (MALAYSIA): (603) 22978688, tjiaw@maybank-ib.com
- Bianca Solema (PHILIPPINES): (63) 28498835, bianca_solema@maybank-atrke.com
- Laura Dy-Liacco (PHILIPPINES): (63) 28498840, laura_dyliacco@maybank-atrke.com
- Yeast Chee Keong (SINGAPORE): (65) 6432 1460, yeakcheeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
- Sutthichai Kumworachai (THAILAND): (66) 2658 6300 x 1400, sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
- Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (VIETNAM): (84) 844555888 x 8082, chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
- Truong Quang Binh (VIETNAM): (84) 444555888 x 8087, binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
Summary of Key Points
- The oil and gas market experienced mixed movements, with Brent and WTI rising, while Henry Hub declined.
- Several companies reported significant developments, including new contracts, stake reductions, and resolution of disputes.
- Analysts maintained BUY ratings for companies like Bumi Armada, Perdana Petroleum, and NewOcean Energy, while HOLD and SELL ratings were given to others.
- Valuation comparisons indicate varying price-to-earnings and enterprise value-to-EBITDA ratios, with some companies showing strong potential for growth and value.
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