2026年全球并购趋势脉搏调查_18页_929kb

2026 M&A Trends Pulse Survey Summary

Core Content

The 2026 M&A Trends Pulse Survey provides a midyear update on M&A activity and strategies, focusing on cross-border dealmaking. Conducted in April 2026, the survey collected insights from 500 senior corporate and private equity (PE) dealmakers. It highlights the evolving dynamics of the M&A market, including increased volatility, strategic motivations, and challenges in cross-border transactions.

Main Observations

1. Intensifying Volatility

• Market Conditions: Increased volatility in US financial and M&A markets is driven by shifting trade environments, tariffs, and rising geopolitical tensions.
• Inflation Trends: Inflation (CPI) rose from 2.4% in January and February 2026 to 3.8% in April, despite the Federal Reserve easing interest rates in Q4 2025.
• Equity Markets: US equity markets have remained strong, showing resilience in 2026.
• Deal Volume: M&A volume has remained flat over the past few years, with some organizations expressing caution in dealmaking.
• Opportunity in Volatility: Proactive acquirers are finding value in the volatility, particularly in the middle and smaller markets, where "mega" deals account for over 40% of total US aggregate value.

2. Cautious Optimism

• Volume Expectations: 67% of respondents expect an increase in deal volume in the next six months, while 33% anticipate a decrease or no change.
• Value Expectations: 69% expect an increase in deal value, with 31% anticipating a decrease or no change.
• Activity Trends: Despite the cautious outlook, the overall market shows a slight upward trend in value, with the top 10 deals contributing 43% of total value in Q1 2026.

3. Cross-Border Dealmaking Roadmap

• Interest in Cross-Border Deals: Only 20% of respondents reported "significant" interest in pursuing cross-border deals in the near future, with 45% "somewhat" interested and 35% neutral or pessimistic.
• Strategic Motivations:
  • Growth and Expansion (75%): The primary driver for cross-border activity.
  • Financial Optimization (65%): A strong second motivation.
  • Risk Diversification (60%): A key third motivation.
• Industry Differences: Motivations vary significantly by industry, with growth and capability expansion being a top priority for corporate respondents, while financial optimization is a key driver for PE investors.
• Geographic Focus: Corporate M&A leaders focus on a limited set of countries, with the UK being the top target. PE investors, however, target a broader range of markets, including both developed and developing economies.

Key Insights on Cross-Border Activity

• Performance of Cross-Border Deals: 14% of respondents exceeded expectations, while 15% fell short, highlighting the challenges in achieving value from cross-border transactions.
• Synergy Challenges: Revenue, tax/legal, and supply chain synergies have been the most difficult to realize in cross-border deals.
• Post-Close Challenges: Compliance and supply chain issues are among the top unexpected challenges following cross-border deals, with nearly half of respondents citing them as major concerns.

Figures and Data Highlights

• Figure 1: VIX (Volatility Index) trended upward in the first third of 2026.
• Figure 2: Inflation rose significantly in March 2026 due to higher oil prices.
• Figure 3: US equity markets have shown resilience in 2026.
• Figure 4: M&A activity volume has remained flat for over a year, while aggregate value dropped 45% in Q1 2026 compared to Q4 2025.
• Figure 5–6: Cautious optimism persists, with expectations of increased volume and value in the next six months.
• Figure 7: The top 10 deals account for 43% of total value in Q1 2026.
• Figure 8: US outbound M&A value has increased, but volume remains flat.
• Figure 9–10: Cross-border deal performance is mixed, with some exceeding expectations and others falling short.
• Figure 11–12: Growth and capability expansion are the highest-priority motivations for cross-border activity.
• Figure 13–14: Compliance and supply chain are the most common post-close challenges in cross-border deals.
• Figure 15: Corporate M&A leaders focus on a limited number of countries, while PE investors target a broader range.

Authors and Contributors

• Adam Reilly – National Managing Partner, Merger and Acquisition Services, Deloitte & Touche LLP
• Barry Winer – Head of Research, Merger and Acquisition Services, Deloitte Services LP
• Contributors:
  • Yelena Blackwell, Managing Director, Deloitte Services LP
  • Susan Dettmar, Principal, Deloitte Consulting LLP
  • Joel Schlachtenhaufen, Principal, Deloitte Consulting LLP
  • Pankaj Kumar Bansal, Maria Bullard, Michael Neher, Jayesh Prabhu

Disclaimer

This document is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute professional advice. It is not a substitute for such advice, and users are advised to consult a qualified professional advisor before making business decisions. Deloitte shall not be responsible for any loss sustained by any person relying on this document.