2023-07-18-莱坊-Perth_Residential_Insight_Q2_2023_4页_729kb

Perth Residential Insight Summary (Q2 2023)

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive analysis of the residential market in Greater Perth, covering sales and price performance, rental market trends, population growth, economic indicators, and the lending environment for both owner occupiers and investors. It also includes forecasts for the period up to 2025.

Residential Market Performance

Sales & Price Trends

• Sales Volume:
  • In the March 2023 quarter, residential sales volume dropped by 21% to 9,676 homes.
  • Annual sales volume was 14% lower than the previous year.
• Days on Market:
  • The average days on market for a residential home was 66 days in March 2023, up from 59 days one quarter earlier.
• Capital Values:
  • Over the year to March 2023, capital values increased by 5.0%, with a 0.7% rise in the past quarter.
  • The median value of a residential home was $604,000.

Rental Market Trends

• Vacancy Rate:
  • Residential rental vacancy in Greater Perth was 0.7% at the end of March 2023, down from 0.6% the previous quarter and 1.2% one year earlier.
• Rental Growth:
  • Rents increased by 3.9% in the March 2023 quarter, and by 15.2% over the past year.
  • The weekly median rent stood at $530.
• Gross Rental Yields:
  • Gross rental yields increased by 12 bps to 4.56% in Q1 2023.

Established Houses

• Sales Volume:
  • In the March 2023 quarter, house sales volume declined by 14.5% to 8,466.
  • Annual sales volume was 4.1% lower than the previous year.
• Days on Market:
  • The average days on market for a house was 59 days, up from 52 days one quarter ago.
• Capital Values:
  • Capital values for houses increased by 6.0% over the year to March 2023.
  • The median house value was $672,000.
• Rental Growth:
  • Weekly median rents for houses increased by 14.6% annually, reaching $550.

Established Apartments

• Sales Volume:
  • Apartment sales volume in the March 2023 quarter decreased by 14.5% to 1,210.
  • Annual sales volume was 4.1% lower than the previous year.
• Days on Market:
  • The average days on market for an apartment was 93 days, up from 83 days one quarter ago.
• Capital Values:
  • Capital values for apartments fell by 1.0% over the year to March 2023.
  • The median apartment value was $360,500.
• Rental Growth:
  • Weekly median rents for apartments increased by 12.5% annually, reaching $450.
  • Gross rental yields for apartments rose by 16 bps to 6.51%.

Future Pipeline

• Building Approvals:
  • In the March 2023 quarter, building approvals totaled 2,239 houses and 390 apartments.
  • House approvals trended down by 12.1%, while apartment approvals rose by 32.2% compared to the previous quarter.

Population Growth

• Current Population:
  • The Greater Perth population was estimated at 2.2 million persons in 2022.
• Annual Growth:
  • Annual population change was 3.9% in 2022.
• Projected Growth:
  • Population growth is expected to slow to 1.6% per annum by 2041 (ABS).

Economic Outlook

• Economic Growth:
  • Western Australia's economic growth was 5.6% in 2022, with a forecast of 4.3% for 2023.
  • The forecast for economic growth from 2023 to 2025 is 0.3%, 0.7%, and 2.6%, averaging 1.2%.
• Unemployment Rate:
  • The unemployment rate in Greater Perth was 3.8% as of March 2023, up by 44 bps from the previous quarter.
  • The forecast for unemployment rates from 2023 to 2025 is 3.9%, 4.2%, and 4.1%, averaging 4.1%.
• Cash Rate Target:
  • The official cash rate target was raised to 4.10% by the Reserve Bank of Australia as of 6 June 2023.
  • Oxford Economics forecasts the rate to be reduced to an average of 3.94% by the end of 2024.

Lending Environment

• Household Loan Commitments:
  • New household loan commitments in WA decreased by 6.3% in the March 2023 quarter compared to the previous quarter.
  • Commitments to first home buyers increased by 20.6%, representing 22.9% of all owner occupier loans.
• Mortgage Rates:
  • Average mortgage lending rates for owner occupiers increased by 3 bps to 6.27% for a 3-year fixed term and 50 bps to 8.02% for a standard variable loan.
  • For investors, 3-year fixed term rates decreased by 1 bps to 6.32%, while standard variable loan rates rose by 50 bps to 8.60%.

Residential Market Forecast

Key Contacts

• Residential Research: Michelle Ciesielski
  Email: michelle.ciesielski@au.knightfrank.com
  Phone: +612 9036 6659

• Residential Site Sales: Tony Delich
  Email: tony.delich@au.knightfrank.com
  Phone: +618 9225 2528

• Franchise Partnerships: Sally Edwardsen
  Email: sally.edvardsen@au.knightfrank.com
  Phone: +612 9036 6845

• Residential: Erin van Tuil
  Email: erin.vantuil@au.knightfrank.com
  Phone: +612 9036 6699

• Residential Project Sales: Luke Hayes
  Email: luke.hayes@au.knightfrank.com
  Phone: +612 9036 700

• Valuations: Alistair Carpenter
  Email: al.carpenter@au.knightfrank.com
  Phone: +612 9036 62