2024-01-24-莱坊-Regional_SA_Residential_Insight_Q4_2023_3页_640kb

报告摘要

Regional SA Residential Insight Summary (Q4 2023)

Core Content Overview

This document provides a quarterly analysis of the residential housing market in Regional South Australia (SA) by Knight Frank, focusing on sales, rental performance, economic indicators, lending environment, and population trends. It highlights the region's resilience and growth potential despite broader national and global economic conditions.

Main Market Performance

House Price and Rental Growth

House Price Growth: Regional SA experienced the strongest price change over the past twelve months compared to other regional areas in Australia.
Annual Growth: House values in Regional SA increased by 6.9% in the year to September 2023, with an additional 3.2% over the last quarter, reaching an average value of $511,000.
Rental Growth: Weekly rents rose by 4.4% annually in September 2023, averaging $470 per week. The average days on market for a house decreased to 103 days, indicating strong demand and solid price growth.
Forecast: Average house prices are expected to increase by 8% by the end of 2023, 4% in 2024, and 3% in 2025. Rental prices are projected to rise by 6% in 2023, 2% in 2024, and 2% in 2025.

Residential Vacancy

Total Vacancy Rate: The total residential rental vacancy rate in Regional SA was 1.7% in September 2023, up by 23 bps from the previous year.
Balanced Market: A 3% vacancy rate is generally considered balanced between supply and demand.

Economic and Lending Environment

Economic Growth

SA Economic Growth: The South Australian economy grew by 4.2% in 2022, with a forecast of 2.0% in 2025 (Oxford Economics).
Unemployment Rate: Regional SA unemployment stood at 3.1% in September 2023.

Lending Commitments

New Household Loans: New household loan commitments across SA fell by 15.7% in the year to September 2023, a decline more significant than the previous year's 10.0%.
First Home Buyers: Lending commitments to first home buyers in SA dropped by 10.9% in September 2023, compared to 10.0% the previous year. This group accounted for 21.2% of all owner occupier loans in SA during that period.

Official Cash Rate

Current Rate: The official cash rate was set at 4.35% by the Reserve Bank of Australia in December 2023.
Forecast: It is expected to average 3.85% by the end of 2025.

Population Trends

Population Growth: Regional SA's population increased by 0.6% to 403,000 persons in the year to June 2022. The projected annual population growth for 2025 is 0.1%.
Regional Breakdown: Inner regional areas saw an 1.4% annual population change in 2022, while outer regional areas recorded 0.2%.

New Builds

Building Approvals: Annual building approvals in SA fell by 4.5% to 12,107 additional dwellings in September 2023, compared to a 14.6% drop the previous year.

Regional SA Residential Forecast

Key Drivers Forecast (2021–2025)

Indicator	2021	2022	2023f	2024f	2025f	Average 2023f–2025f
SA Economic Growth	7.6%	4.2%	1.4%	0.9%	2.0%	0.4%
Unemployment Rate	5.1%	3.7%	3.7%	4.3%	4.3%	4.1%
Cash Rate Target	0.1%	1.2%	3.9%	4.6%	3.9%	4.1%

Residential Market Forecast (2021–2025)

Indicator	2021	2022	2023f	2024f	2025f	Average 2023f–2025f
Price Performance	5%	24%	8%	4%	3%	5%
Rental Market	11%	8%	6%	2%	2%	3%

Source

Economic Data: Oxford Economics
Residential Forecast: Knight Frank Research

Contact Information

Residential Research: Michelle Ciesielski
Email: michelle.ciesielski@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +612 9036 6659
Residential Site Sales: Oliver Totani
Email: oliver.totani@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +614 1280 8743
Franchise Partnerships: Sally Edvardsen
Email: sally.edvardsen@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +612 9036 6845
Residential: Erin van Tuil
Email: erin.vantuil@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +614 0932 5700
Valuations: Chris Hill
Email: chris.hill@au.knightfrank.com
Phone: +614 3880 7249