2023-07-18-莱坊-Australian_Residential_Review_Q2_2023_8页_1mb
报告摘要
Australian Residential Market Summary - Q2 2023
Core Content
The Australian residential market in Q2 2023 showed mixed results, influenced by historically low rental vacancy rates, a shortage of listed homes, and rising mortgage rates. The market experienced a decline in sales volume and property values, while the rental market remained resilient with strong price growth and limited vacancy.
Key Market Trends
Residential Sales
- Sales Volume: Declined by 27% over the past year, with 85,712 homes sold in the March 2023 quarter.
- Days on Market: Increased to 78 days in March 2023, up from 68 days in the previous quarter.
- Price Performance: Median property values fell 5.0% over the year to March 2023, reaching $904,000.
- Market Activity: Buyers not reliant on finance, such as retirees downsizing and high-end market participants, remained active.
Residential Rentals
- Vacancy Rates: Total rental vacancy stood at 1.4%, the lowest in 16 years.
- Rental Growth: Annual rental growth reached 16.7%, with median weekly rent at $560.
- Gross Rental Yield: Increased to 3.91% in March 2023, up 21 bps from the previous quarter.
- Investor Lending: Lending to investors decreased by 11% over the past year, while lending to first home buyers increased by 30.9%.
Key Drivers
Population Growth
- Australia's total population grew by 1.2% to 26.0 million in the year to June 2022.
- Major cities saw higher growth (1.3%) compared to outer regional areas (0.8%).
Economic Growth
- Australia's economy grew by 2.3% in March 2023, with a forecast of 1.6% for 2023.
- Unemployment rate was 3.8%, expected to rise to 3.9% by the end of 2023.
Lending Environment
- The official cash rate reached 4.10% in June 2023, up 50 bps from the previous three months.
- Mortgage rates for owner occupiers increased by 3 bps to 6.27% for fixed loans and 50 bps to 8.02% for variable loans.
- Investor lending rates for fixed loans decreased by 1 bp to 6.32%, while variable rates rose by 50 bps to 8.60%.
Price Performance Forecast
| Area | 2021 | 2022 | 2023f | 2024f | 2025f | 2023-2025f AVE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greater Sydney | 23% | -8% | -1% | 5% | 6% | 3% |
| Greater Melbourne | 15% | -6% | -2% | 4% | 5% | 2% |
| Greater Brisbane | 23% | 0% | -2% | 4% | 5% | 2% |
| Greater Perth | 9% | 6% | 1% | 5% | 6% | 4% |
| Greater Adelaide | 22% | 12% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 3% |
| Greater Hobart | 31% | -4% | -1% | 4% | 5% | 3% |
| Canberra | 28% | -7% | 0% | 4% | 5% | 3% |
| Greater Darwin | 29% | 0% | -2% | 3% | 5% | 2% |
| Gold Coast | 21% | 11% | 1% | 4% | 6% | 4% |
| Regional NSW | 27% | 13% | -5% | -7% | -1% | -4% |
| Regional Victoria | 21% | 10% | -4% | -6% | 1% | -3% |
| Regional Queensland | 19% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 3% | 4% |
| Regional WA | 10% | 4% | -5% | -4% | -1% | -3% |
| Regional SA | 6% | 22% | 18% | 5% | 3% | 9% |
| Regional Tasmania | 31% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 2% | 2% |
| Australia | 21% | -4% | -1% | 5% | 6% | 3% |
Rental Market Forecast
| Area | 2021 | 2022 | 2023f | 2024f | 2025f | 2023-2025f AVE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greater Sydney | 7% | 13% | 18% | 11% | 8% | 12% |
| Greater Melbourne | 0% | 11% | 17% | 12% | 9% | 13% |
| Greater Brisbane | 11% | 14% | 13% | 9% | 7% | 10% |
| Greater Perth | 10% | 15% | 21% | 13% | 9% | 14% |
| Greater Adelaide | 9% | 10% | 17% | 11% | 8% | 12% |
| Greater Hobart | 9% | 10% | -4% | 2% | 3% | 0% |
| Canberra | 10% | 3% | -3% | 3% | 5% | 2% |
| Greater Darwin | 10% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Gold Coast | 19% | 18% | 8% | 5% | 3% | 5% |
| Regional NSW | 12% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% |
| Regional Victoria | 11% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Regional Queensland | 13% | 16% | 10% | 8% | 4% | 7% |
| Regional WA | 11% | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 4% |
| Regional SA | 10% | 8% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 3% |
| Regional Tasmania | 17% | 10% | 7% | 4% | 3% | 5% |
| Australia | 7% | 16% | 17% | 11% | 8% | 12% |
Regional Highlights
Established Houses
- Best Annual Growth in Sales: Regional SA (+25.1%)
- Lowest Days on Market: Regional Tasmania (47 days)
- Strongest Annual Price Growth: Regional SA (25.1%)
- Highest Gross Rental Yield: Darwin (5.19%)
- Strongest Annual Rental Growth: Regional Queensland (15.4%)
Established Apartments
- Best Annual Growth in Sales: Darwin (+6%)
- Lowest Days on Market: Gold Coast (60 days)
- Strongest Annual Price Growth: Gold Coast (9.7%)
- Highest Gross Rental Yield: Darwin (7.06%)
- Strongest Annual Rental Growth: Sydney (24.0%)
Summary of Key Metrics
- Total Residential Vacancy: 1.4% (lowest in 16 years)
- Median Residential Value: $904,000
- Median Weekly Rent: $560
- Gross Rental Yield: 3.91%
- Annual Rental Growth: 16.7%
- Sales Volume Decline: 27% over the past year
- Median House Value Decline: 5.1%
- Median Apartment Value Decline: 4.4%
- Annual Apartment Rent Growth: 22.2%
Additional Notes
- Population Growth: 1.2% annually, with major cities growing faster than outer regions.
- Economic Growth: 2.3% in March 2023, with a forecast of 1.6% for 2023.
- Unemployment Rate: 3.8%, expected to rise to 3.9% by the end of 2023.
- Cash Rate Target: 4.10% as of June 2023, with a forecast to decrease to 3.94% by 2024.
- Building Approvals: Fell by 20.9% in March 2023, with a significant drop in apartment approvals (33.1%).
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