2024-01-24-莱坊-Regional_WA_Residential_Insight_Q4_2023_3页_658kb

报告摘要

Regional WA Residential Insight Summary (Q4 2023)

Core Content Overview

This summary presents Knight Frank's quarterly analysis of the mainstream sales and rental housing markets in Regional Western Australia (WA), highlighting key trends, economic indicators, and market forecasts for the period up to September 2023 and beyond.

Key Market Trends

Rental Market

Rental Growth: Regional WA recorded the strongest annual rental growth in regional Australia, with rents increasing by 12.0% in the year to September 2023.
Vacancy Rates: Total residential rental vacancy stood at 1.7% in September 2023, up by 23 basis points (bps) compared to the previous year.
Gross Rental Yields: These increased by 14 bps over the past year, averaging 6.08% in September 2023.
Forecast: Rents are expected to rise by 8% by the end of 2023, 4% in 2024, and 1% in 2025.

Sales Market

Sales Volume: Annual sales volume decreased by 17.7% in the year ending September 2023, with 4,136 houses sold across Regional WA.
Days on Market: The average days on market for a house increased slightly to 80 days in September 2023, compared to 78 days three months earlier and 83 days one year prior.
Price Growth: House values rose by 4.2% in the year to September 2023, with a 4.3% increase over the last quarter. The average house value reached $510,000.
Price Forecast: Average prices are projected to increase by 5% by the end of 2023, 3% in 2024, and 2% in 2025.

Economic and Lending Environment

Economic Growth

WA Economy: Grew by 5.4% in 2022, with a forecast of 3.6% in 2025 (Oxford Economics).
Unemployment Rate: Regional WA unemployment stood at 3.9% in September 2023.

Lending Environment

Household Loan Commitments: New household loan commitments in WA fell by 11.0% in the year to September 2023, compared to 1.2% the previous year.
First Home Buyers: Lending commitments to first home buyers dropped by 19.3% in September 2023, representing 25.1% of all owner occupier loans in the region.
Cash Rate Target: The official cash rate was set at 4.35% in December 2023, with a forecast of 3.85% by the end of 2025.

New Builds and Population

Building Approvals

Annual Building Approvals: Fell by 23.4% to 13,406 additional dwellings in September 2023, compared to a 37.7% drop the previous year.

Population Growth

Regional WA Population: Increased by 1.0% to 563,500 persons in the year to June 2022.
Projected Growth: Population is expected to grow at 0.9% annually through 2032.
Regional Breakdown: Inner regional areas saw 1.6% annual growth in 2022, while outer regional areas recorded 0.7%.

Market Forecast

Key Drivers Forecast (Source: Oxford Economics)

Indicator	2021	2022	2023f	2024f	2025f	Average 2023f-2025f
WA Economic Growth	5.4%	5.4%	2.1%	2.5%	3.6%	2.8%
Unemployment Rate	5.1%	3.7%	3.7%	4.3%	4.3%	4.1%
Cash Rate Target	0.1%	1.2%	3.9%	4.6%	3.9%	4.1%

Regional WA Residential Forecast (Source: Knight Frank Research)

Indicator	2021	2022	2023f	2024f	2025f	Average 2023f-2025f
Price Performance	11%	4%	5%	3%	2%	3%
Rental Market	8%	17%	8%	4%	1%	4%

Summary of Key Points

Rental Growth: Regional WA continues to experience elevated rental growth, despite an increase in the number of available rental homes.
Economic Outlook: The WA economy is expected to grow at a moderate pace, with 3.6% forecasted for 2025.
Lending Trends: There has been a significant decline in lending commitments, especially for first home buyers.
Population Trends: Regional WA population growth is expected to slow down in the coming years, with 0.9% annual growth projected through 2032.
Market Balance: A 3% vacancy rate is considered balanced in the rental market, while current rates are below this threshold, indicating tight supply.
Price and Rent Projections: Prices and rents are expected to continue rising, though at a slower pace over time.

Contact Information

Michelle Ciesielski – Residential Research
+612 9036 6659
michelle.ciesielski@au.knightfrank.com
Tony Delich – Residential Site Sales
+614 1892 6410
tony.delich@au.knightfrank.com
Sally Edwardsen – Franchise Partnerships
+612 9036 6845
sally.edvardsen@au.knightfrank.com
Erin van Tuil – Residential
+614 0932 5700
erin.vantuil@au.knightfrank.com
Chris Hill – Valuations
+614 3880 7249
chris.hill@au.knightfrank.com