20240303-国联证券-小鹏汽车-W-09868.HK-2024年2月交付数据点评_短期销量承压_智能驾驶功能持续加速_3页_282kb

Summary of Xiaopeng Auto (09868) Delivery Data Analysis

Key Highlights from the March 1, 2024 Report

The report analyzes Xiaopeng Auto's 2024 February delivery data and related developments, focusing on the significant year-over-year decline and factors influencing future performance. Xiaopeng Auto delivered a total of 4,545 vehicles in February 2024, marking a sharp 244% drop compared to February 2023, primarily due to end-of-year delivery promotions and intensified competition. The analysis highlights strengths in product innovation, smart driving features, channel optimization, and financial projections.

• Event Overview: On March 1, 2024, the company released its February 2024 delivery figures, which showed a substantial decline after strong performance in December 2023 from supply-demand promotions.

• Delivery Data: Total deliveries for February stood at 4,545 units, down 244% year-over-year. The decline is attributed to aggressive end-of-year inventory clearance and increased competition in certain vehicle segments.

• Product Strength: The X9 model continues to lead with strong product appeal, including enhanced cabin design and space optimization, contributing to its cumulative delivery of 1,448 units. However, itsFebruary performance saw a环比 drop due to supply chain constraints, but the company's product matrix is improving and supports long-term growth potential.

• Smart Driving Advancements: Xiaopeng's XNGP (Navigation Guided Pilot) system has expanded to 243 cities, with a user渗透率 (penetration rate) of 83% in urban environments. The rollout of advanced smart driving features like infinite XNGP promises to boost sales through improved functionality and coverage, aiming for nationwide and global leadership by 2025.

• Channel and Charging Infrastructure: Channel optimization efforts, shown by a decrease in store count (from 425 in Q1 2023 to 395 in Q3 2023), aim to enhance sales efficiency per outlet. The charging network, with 1,057 stations (including 854 self-owned superchargers), is improving energy density and addressing range anxiety, creating potential new sales growth points.

• Financial Projections: For 2024 and 2025, the company forecasts significant growth in deliveries (295k/481k units), revenue (79.64 billion RMB/123.66 billion RMB), but persistent net losses (-4.5 billion RMB/75 billion RMB). The equity researchsuggests continued focus on smart driving as a key differentiator.

• Risk Assessment: Key risks include delays in smart driving technology development and underestimated impact of AI features on overall sales, which could hinder financial targets.

Overall, while facing short-term challenges from market dynamics, Xiaopeng Auto emphasizes its R&D and innovation capabilities to drive future growth, with recommendations to closely monitor progress in smart technology and channel efficiency.