20250304-华源证券-建筑装饰行业周报_新增推荐四川路桥_12页_942kb

Investment Recommendation: Strong Buy (Maintained)

Key Points:

1. Regional Infrastructure Leader: Sichuan Bridge Construction Group benefits from strong infrastructure demand in Sichuan Province, supported by fiscal policies and the rise of the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle. The province’s highway investments grew at a CAGR of 108.9% (2016-2023), significantly higher than the national average.
2. Strategic Backing: As a core asset of ShuDao Group, the company leverages its "invest-and-build" model through "Build-Operate-Transfer" (BOT) arrangements, securing high-return projects with minimal equity. Revenue from ShuDao Group rose from 51.4% to 62.8% of total revenue between 2021–2023.
3. Structural Reforms and Dividends: Business restructuring reduced losses by optimizing assets, while a robust dividend policy (dividend payout ratios of 50%, 60%, and 60% for 2024–2026) promises high yields (6.6%, 8.5%, and 9.4%) based on net profit forecasts.

Market Review:

• Indices: Shenzhen Component Index fell by 3.46%, while the construction sub-index rose by 0.7%.
• Top Movers: Hanjia Design, Chengbang Shares, and others saw significant gains, while losses were concentrated in real estate-related stocks.

Risk Factors:

• Economic recovery or policy execution may underperform expectations, impacting infrastructure investments and demand.

Supporting Data:

• High dividend yields and strong regional infrastructure growth position the company as a resilient investment in the construction sector.