20251202-华泰期货-新能源及有色金属日报_铜价高位震荡_下游采购意愿受限_11页_1mb

报告摘要

Copper prices exhibit high volatility, with upstream demand constraints limiting downstream purchases. Shanghai copper futures surged 2.12% on the main contract, reaching 89,280 yuan/ton, supported by weak sales. Spot copper prices held a minor premium, averaging 105 yuan/ton, with subdued buying interest above 89,000 yuan/ton.

Macro Data: U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.2, indicating economic contraction. Tariffs on Korean vehicles and aircraft parts were reduced to 15%, aligning trade policies.
Supply: Kamoa-Kakula smelter resumed operations, increasing copper inventory and potential supply pressure.
Demand: Long-term copper demand growth driven by sectors like power and electronics, though short-term issues include slowed demand from construction and potential glitches in AI-related sectors.

Copper: Defensive positive outlook, recommending buy-on-dips position management due to supply-demand uncertainties.
Risk Mitigation: Avoid arbitrage opportunities; consider short put options, but monitor market fluctuations.

Domestic demand slowdown and inventory accumulation pose threats. Global liquidity issues could exacerbate supply gluts or inventory tightness in key markets.

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