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OECD Supply Chain Resilience Review Summary

Core Content

The OECD Supply Chain Resilience Review: Navigating Risks is a comprehensive analysis of the current state and future directions of global supply chains. It emphasizes the importance of balancing supply chain resilience with the benefits of open and competitive international trade. The report explores how trade dependency, digital transformation, and environmental policies impact supply chain stability and offers policy recommendations to enhance agility, adaptability, and alignment in global supply networks.

Main Views

1. Supply Chains Enable Competitive Production

• Supply chains are essential for firms to produce and trade efficiently.
• 60% of global trade consists of intermediate products used in production.
• International trade boosts productivity and provides access to a broader range of capabilities and resources.
• Consumers benefit from lower prices and more diverse products.
• Supply chains also play a key role in increasing incomes in emerging and developing economies, contributing to poverty reduction.

2. Current Trade Flows Are Diversified, But Concentration Trends Are Emerging

• Most trade flows remain relatively diversified, but there are increasing trends towards over-concentration.
• Approximately 30% of exported products are highly concentrated in a few trading partners.
• Import concentration is rising, with countries sourcing from fewer suppliers than globally possible.
• The number of cases of suboptimal diversification has increased by 50% since the late 1990s.
• Non-OECD countries are largely responsible for this trend, while OECD countries have maintained stable levels of import concentration.

3. Some Sectors and Countries Are More Vulnerable to Shocks

• Economies with strong vertical links to major foreign economies are more exposed to international supply chain shocks.
• Domestic sector shocks tend to have larger economic impacts than foreign sector shocks.
• Strategic manufacturing industries (e.g., petroleum, electronics) have high exposure to foreign inputs and demand.
• These industries often involve complex supply chains with multiple production steps and border crossings.

4. Relocalising Supply Chains May Be Costly

• Relocalisation could reduce global trade by over 18% and global real GDP by over 5%.
• It may lead to GDP instability in more than half of the economies studied.
• Resilience is not necessarily improved by relocalisation, highlighting the need for a balanced approach.

5. Digital Transformation and Environmental Policies Impact Supply Chains

• Digital transformation and environmental policies are driving changes in global supply chains.
• These policies offer opportunities to improve efficiency, resilience, and sustainability (both environmental and social).
• However, they also introduce new risks, such as regulatory fragmentation, tariff barriers, and restrictions on data flows.
• Sustainability requirements and digitalisation are increasing pressures on supply chains, which are already affected by geopolitical uncertainty and concentration of critical raw materials.

Key Policies for Supply Chain Resilience

• Trade facilitation policies reduce trade frictions and create a stable, transparent regulatory environment.
• Strengthening key supply chain service sectors (e.g., logistics, transport) is crucial for adaptability.
• Digitalisation of supply chains can enhance agility by enabling faster responses to shocks.
• International cooperation with the private sector helps reduce regulatory differences and improve preparedness.
• Balancing sustainability, efficiency, and resilience is essential. Policies should consider the broader ecosystem of global supply chains rather than focusing on a single objective.

Conclusion

The OECD highlights that resilience is not about eliminating risk, but about effectively managing and navigating it. A balanced, cooperative approach involving public, private, and international actors is vital to maintaining the benefits of open trade while addressing vulnerabilities. The report encourages the use of data and analysis to inform policy decisions and promote a rules-based, competitive international trading system.

Key Figures and Data

• 30% of exported products are highly concentrated in few trading partners.
• 50% increase in suboptimal diversification cases since the late 1990s.
• 26% of inputs for strategic manufacturing industries are sourced abroad.
• 27% of output depends on foreign final demand.
• China has increased its contribution to significant import concentration from 5% to 30% over 25 years.
• OECD countries are less concentrated in import and export flows compared to MOEs (Major Other Economies).

Key Recommendations

• Promote trade facilitation to reduce trade frictions and create a predictable regulatory environment.
• Strengthen supply chain service sectors to support adaptability.
• Facilitate digital transformation by lowering tariffs on ICT goods and streamlining regulations.
• Encourage international cooperation to reduce regulatory heterogeneity and enhance preparedness.
• Design balanced policies that consider the interplay between sustainability, efficiency, and resilience.

Supporting Materials

• Annex A: A guide to using country-by-country data for monitoring supply chain interdependencies.
• Annex B: Country-by-country data on trade concentration and supply chain resilience.
• Figures and Tables: Provide detailed insights into trade flows, concentration trends, and the impact of shocks on GDP and supply chain structures.

Conclusion

The OECD Supply Chain Resilience Review underscores the importance of resilient, agile, and aligned supply chains in maintaining a stable and prosperous global trading system. It advocates for evidence-based policy-making that supports open markets while addressing risks and vulnerabilities in a balanced manner.