英文_OECD_经合组织经济调查_越南2025_139页_6mb

报告摘要

OECD Economic Survey of Viet Nam 2025: Key Summary

Economic Growth & Macroeconomic Foundations

Viet Nam’s economy rebounded strongly in 2024 (7.1% growth), driven by domestic demand and fiscal stimulus, but faces headwinds from higher U.S. tariffs and slowing external trade.
Macroeconomic policy risks include high inflation (falling to 3.7% in 2025), growing public debt (36.3% of GDP), and weak resource allocation due to state-owned enterprises (SOEs) dominating key sectors.
Recommendations: Strengthen central bank independence, adopt price-based monetary policy, and raise revenue via VAT hikes and property taxes to offset fiscal pressures.

Towards Inclusive Growth

Poverty rates are near eradicated, but informality (~68.5% of workers) limits social protection and productivity growth. Reducing informal employment through lower social security contributions and targeted cash transfers is urged.
Education gaps persist: tertiary attainment is low (10% of adults), and public spending on education remains below OECD averages. Making education more accessible and aligning curricula with employer needs is critical.

Low-Carbon Growth Transition

Viet Nam is highly vulnerable to climate change and aims for net-zero emissions by 2050. However, coal dependence and energy inefficiency hinder progress.
Recommendations: Accelerate renewable energy deployment, restore environmental taxes, and implement carbon pricing. Address coal sector risks with reskilling programs to support affected workers.

Productivity Through Trade & Investment

FDI and trade have boosted growth, but domestic firms lack deep links to foreign affiliates. Upgrading education, fostering innovation, and easing FDI barriers (especially in services) are key.
Recommendations: Enhance supplier development programs, promote equity crowdfunding for SMEs, and reduce SOE dominance to improve competition and resource allocation.

Core Recommendations

Fiscal & Monetary Policy: Neutralize fiscal stance, strengthen central bank independence, and reform tax systems.
Inclusivity: Broaden social protection, invest in education, and tackle informality.
Green Economy: Implement carbon pricing, decarbonize electricity, and adapt infrastructure to climate risks.
Productivity: Liberate trade, boost FDI linkages, and modernize SOEs for equitable high-income status.

For detailed policy actions and further analysis, refer to the full OECD Economic Surveys: Viet Nam 2025.

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