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OECD Compendium of Productivity Indicators 2025: Analysis and Summary

Key Findings

Labor Productivity Growth

• Subdued Growth (0.6%): Across OECD countries, labor productivity growth was modeste in 2023, continuing a downward trajectory from previous years due to widespread stagnation in Multifactor Productivity (MFP).
• Country Variations: While half of OECD countries saw productivity gains, others experienced declines. Notable exceptions include Costa Rica (top performer) and Ireland (steep decline), influenced by structural factors.

Multifactor Productivity (MFP)

• Dominant Factor: Most productivity underperformance is attributed to MFP stagnation (largest negative in Luxembourg and Austria). Capital deepening contributed minimally in most cases.
• Industry Role: Key contributors in several countries include manufacturing, while sectors like electricity, gas, and trade services sometimes dragged productivity down.

Investment Trends

• Mixed Results: Around half of OECD countries boosted their investment rates in 2023, with significant increases in construction and non-ICT assets. Investment in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and intellectual property products declined across most nations.

Cyclical Adjustment of Multifactor Productivity

• Adjusted MFP: This adjustment drastically improves unadjusted MFP by filtering out cyclical factors, revealing persistent declines in underlying productivity growth (e.g., sharp slowdown from Japan’s 2% to -0.8%) since 2005.

Future Outlook

• AI Impact: Artificial intelligence is predicted to contribute 0.2–1.3 percentage points to annualized productivity gains by 2030, but current implementations still lag behind theoretical expectations.
• Digitalization’s Role: Digital transformation enhances productivity but faces constraints in many sectors due to data requirements, institutional alignment, and adaptation limitations.

Forward-Looking Challenges and Opportunities

• The fragility of global productivity recovery calls for policies fostering innovation diffusion, human capital development, and better cross-country institutional alignment to sustain growth.