英文_OECD_经合组织经济调查_德国2025_154页_6mb

Summary of OECD Economic Surveys: Germany 2025

Core Content

The OECD Economic Surveys: Germany 2025 highlights the challenges and opportunities facing Germany's economy in the wake of a decade of export-led growth, followed by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, and rising trade tensions. The report outlines key recommendations to revive economic growth, enhance fiscal sustainability, foster business dynamism, and address skilled labor shortages and regional disparities.

Main Views

1. Strengthening Fiscal Policy and Structural Reforms

• Fiscal sustainability is a priority, with the need to raise spending efficiency, reallocate spending, and broaden the tax base.
• The aging population is increasing spending pressures, particularly on pensions, healthcare, and long-term care.
• Reforms to the pension system are necessary to stabilise spending and encourage older workers to stay in the workforce.
• Reducing high labour taxes and increasing property taxes could help improve fiscal sustainability and stimulate investment.
• Digitalisation of public administration and improving policy impact evaluation are key to increasing spending efficiency.

2. Fostering Competition and Business Dynamism

• Business dynamism and productivity growth have slowed, partly due to high regulatory barriers and complex administrative procedures.
• Regulatory reforms are needed to make policies more competition-friendly, particularly in services and manufacturing.
• Strengthening the competition agency to challenge anti-competitive practices by public bodies and improving transparency in public subsidies to state-owned enterprises (SOEs) is crucial.
• Corruption and regulatory capture remain concerns, and continued efforts to combat them are essential to ensure fair competition.

3. Addressing Skilled Labour Shortages

• Skilled labor shortages are a major risk to economic growth, exacerbated by population aging and low participation rates among certain groups.
• Improving incentives for women, older, and low-income workers to participate in the labor market is necessary.
• Reducing barriers to skilled migration and enhancing education and training systems, including vocational education and training (VET), will help address skill gaps.
• Childcare support and reducing the marginal tax rate on second earners are important to increase female labor supply.
• Improving adult education and basic education quality is key to addressing skill mismatch and preparing workers for future economic shifts.

4. Fostering Regional Development

• Regional disparities in living standards have narrowed but structural changes may widen gaps.
• Coordinating place-based policies with industrial, infrastructure, and innovation policies is essential to support regional development.
• Municipalities face financial and administrative constraints, and improving their capacity will help foster regional growth.
• The green and digital transitions will have heterogeneous effects across regions, requiring targeted support to ensure equitable development.
• Investment in knowledge-based capital and digital technologies is relatively low, and improving digital infrastructure is a priority.

Key Information

• Economic growth slowed after a decade of strong export performance, with real GDP growth at 0.4% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026.
• Private consumption is expected to lead the recovery, supported by declining policy uncertainty and higher real wages.
• Government financial balance is projected to remain in deficit through 2026, with fiscal debt rising to 64.6% of GDP.
• Skilled labor shortages are linked to low working hours and rising skill mismatch, especially among women and older workers.
• Regional development is hindered by disparities in GDP per capita, infrastructure, and access to digital services.
• Public sector digitalisation and streamlining administrative procedures are key to reducing compliance costs and fostering business dynamism.

Tables and Figures Highlights

• Table 1 shows that private consumption will drive recovery in 2025 and 2026.
• Figure 1 illustrates the slowdown in economic growth and the negative impact of the pandemic.
• Figure 2 highlights the weak post-entry growth of firms, indicating low business dynamism.
• Table 1.4 shows that the fiscal balance turned negative during the pandemic and energy crisis.
• Figure 3 indicates difficulties in filling open positions, reflecting labor market challenges.

Conclusion

The report calls for a comprehensive approach to economic recovery, combining fiscal reforms, structural changes, competition policy improvements, and regional development strategies. By addressing labor market imbalances, policy uncertainty, and regional disparities, Germany can sustain its economic growth and maintain high living standards in the face of global and domestic challenges.