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OECD Employment Outlook 2025 Summary

Core Content

The OECD Employment Outlook 2025 addresses the demographic crunch facing OECD countries, focusing on the shift from a job shortage to a labour shortage due to population ageing. It highlights the economic, social, and policy implications of this trend, emphasizing the need for strategic and inclusive measures to sustain growth and improve living standards.

Main Challenges

• Population ageing is leading to a shrinking working-age population, with most OECD countries projected to experience a decline in the workforce by 2060.
• The old-age dependency ratio is expected to rise significantly, reaching 52% in 2060, three times higher than in 1980.
• Labour shortages persist despite economic slowdowns, with one in six firms in the euro area and one in four in services citing lack of labour as a constraint in 2025.
• Productivity growth is slowing, with GDP per capita growth projected to decline by 40% if current trends continue, from 1% (2006-19) to 0.6% (2024-60).

Key Policy Areas

1. Mobilising Young People

• NEET rates (Not in Employment, Education or Training) are high in some countries, with over 15% in nine OECD nations.
• Policies to reduce NEET rates include:
  • Improving education and training services
  • Reducing school dropouts
  • Offering full-time educational programmes
  • Encouraging school-to-work transitions

2. Empowering Women

• Women face lower pay, fewer paid hours, and more unpaid work (e.g., caregiving).
• Closing the gender employment gap could increase annual GDP per capita growth by 0.2 percentage points.
• Policy measures include:
  • Ensuring equal pay
  • Promoting access to STEM fields and entrepreneurship
  • Implementing gender-friendly workplace policies
  • Expanding affordable childcare and elderly care services

3. Harnessing Migrants

• Regular migrants contribute significantly to sustaining working-age populations and reducing labour shortages.
• Migrant entrepreneurs are key to job creation in host countries.
• To be a game changer, net migration rates must surpass historical levels.
• Policy focus should be on:
  • Labour market needs
  • International cooperation
  • Access to public services (housing, education, transport)

4. Engaging Older Workers

• Older workers can play a crucial role in addressing the labour shortage, as they are living longer and healthier.
• Reducing retirement rates to the lowest 10% in OECD countries could boost GDP per capita growth by 0.2 percentage points.
• Closing the gender gap among older workers could add 0.1 percentage point to this growth.
• Policy measures include:
  • Supporting lifelong learning and employability
  • Creating age-friendly workplaces
  • Promoting job mobility and flexible working conditions
  • Addressing age discrimination in hiring and retention

5. Leveraging AI for Productivity

• AI has the potential to revive productivity growth by:
  • Alleviating physical work
  • Improving mental health
  • Enhancing job safety
  • Adapting work environments to older workers
• AI can also help older workers with disabilities by making workplaces more accessible.
• However, the benefits of AI may not be evenly distributed, and trustworthy use is essential to avoid inequality.

Conclusion and Recommendations

• The demographic shift is not a given but a challenge that can be addressed through comprehensive strategies.
• A multi-faceted approach is required, including:
  • Increasing participation of underrepresented groups (youth, women, migrants, older workers)
  • Promoting fair AI use to enhance productivity and inclusivity
  • Ensuring equity in growth and employment outcomes
• The report calls for bold and smart policy actions to avoid a downturn in living standards and to maintain economic sustainability.

Additional Notes

• The foreword highlights the importance of the demographic shift as a new challenge for policymakers.
• The editorial stresses that governments cannot ignore this shift, as it will only accelerate.
• The statistical annex provides data and figures supporting the analysis, including trends in wage growth, employment rates, and demographic changes.
• The report includes figures that illustrate key trends such as:
  • Beveridge curves returning to pre-pandemic patterns
  • Wage compression between sectors in the US
  • Unpaid care work disproportionately affecting women
  • Employment quality and age-related discrimination

Key Takeaways

• Demographic change is reshaping the labour market and economic growth in OECD countries.
• Population ageing is leading to increased dependency ratios and labour shortages.
• AI and digital technologies offer opportunities but must be used responsibly.
• Inclusive policies that support underrepresented groups are essential to sustain growth and improve living standards.
• Government action is critical to address these challenges and ensure equitable outcomes.