20240621-万联证券-5月债券托管数据跟踪_债券托管增量环比回升_8页_846kb

固定收益跟踪报告：2024年5月债券托管数据跟踪

投资要点

1. 总览：
中债登和上清所债券总托管余额146.49万亿元，较上月增加23.8万亿元。其中，中债登托管余额增长13.8万亿元，主要来自国债和地方债；上清所增长0.99万亿元，主要来自同业存单。

2. 分券种

• 利率债：国债托管量大幅回升，地方政府债低位增长，政金债增速放缓。
• 信用债及存单：信用债托管量总体回落，中票增幅收窄，同业存单增量持续扩大。

3. 分机构
不同机构配置差异显著：

• 商业银行增持利率债，减持信用债及存单；
• 广义基金由减政金债转为增持，存单配置增加；
• 证券公司、保险机构、信用社和境外机构多数增持利率债和存单。

4. 债市杠杆率
5月债市杠杆率为106.8%，环比下降0.5个百分点，同比下降13个百分点。

5. 总结与展望
供给放量带动托管量环比增长，机构整体净买入。展望未来，经济修复持续，资金面偏宽松，利率下行阻力较大，债市预计窄幅震荡。风险包括经济波动超预期、资金面变化及政策调整。

核心内容（译文）

Overview

In May, the total bond custody balance at Central Government Bond Delivery (中债登) and the Central Counterparty Clearing House (上清所) reached 146.49 trillion yuan, an increase of 23.8 trillion yuan from the previous month. The growth at CCBCE was led by national bonds and local government bonds, adding 13.8 trillion yuan. Meanwhile, the bonds in public custody at CCPC increased by 0.99 trillion yuan, with interbank certificates of deposit as the primary driver.

Key Points by Security Type

• Government Bonds: Large increases in national bonds and local government bonds, while policy financial bonds saw slower growth.
• Credit Bonds & Certificates of Deposit: Credit bond holdings saw a decline overall, though interbank certificates of deposit continued to rise.

Institutional Breakdown

• Banks: Increased holding of government bonds but reduced credit and deposit placements.
• Fund Management Companies: Shifted from cutting to increasing holdings of policy financial bonds, boosting certificate of deposit allocation.
• Securities Companies & Other: Varied strategies, but overall trends leaned towards cutting credit bonds while increasing certificates of deposits.

Market Leverage Ratio

In May, the bond market leverage ratio dropped to 106.8%, a 0.5 percentage point decrease from the previous month and an overall reduction of 13 percentage points year-over-year.

Summary and Outlook

Bond supply increases drove a rise in monthly custody balances. With institutions net buying, markets saw positive activity despite regulatory factors like restrictions on manual interest supplements. Looking ahead, with steady economic recovery and relatively loose liquidity conditions, the central bank remains cautious about long-term interest rate risks. Due to abundant liquidity, interest rates face upward resistance, leading experts to expect a narrow-range fluctuation in bond markets. Risks include unanticipated economic shifts, liquidity volatility, and policy changes.