20250714-开源证券-电力行业投资策略_绿电消纳考核范围拓宽_有望持续提升绿电环境溢价_11页_1mb

Power Industry Investment Strategy Summary

The report analyzes the expansion of renewable energy consumption licensing and the evolving green certificate (green cert) market in the power industry. Key points include:

1. Expanded Renewable Energy Consumption Licensing and考核范围

• In 2025, the licensing targets electroly铝 industry, and from 2026, it includes steel, cement, polysilicon, and other key industries under specific考核力度.
• This marks a shift from framework to actual考核 implementation, with compliance based primarily on green cert transactions.
• National policies aim to increase green electricity consumption比例, with目标raised from previous years, potentially enhancing environmental premiums and demand for renewable energy.

2. Green Certificate Market Dynamics

• Supplies are contracting due to inventory clearance, with mostly outdated certs expiring in 2025.
• Prices have risen steadily (e.g.,环比increase in均价), closing the供需差 gap and boosting economic value for operators.
• If prices continue to rise,绿电 environmental value could reach its full potential, supporting operator profitability and sustainability.

3. Investment Recommendations

• Focus on high-quality新能源 power operators with stable performance, such as龙源Power (H), new天绿色能源 (H),大唐新能源 (H), China Power (H), and others.
• These companies stand to benefit from higher greens cert demands and improved margins.
• A list of recommended受益标g includes various A/H shares, with detailed financial metrics provided.

4. Risk Assessment

• Risks include potential绿证 market underperformance, delays in grid infrastructure, price volatility in市场化电价, equipment costs, and subsidy uncertainties.
• Despite opportunities, caution is advised due to these factors.

Overall, the policy shifts and market improvements position the power industry for growth in renewable energy adoption, with renewed emphasis on green cert and operational efficiency. Investment should be based on carefully evaluated company fundamentals and market conditions.