20230414-国泰期货-商品研究晨报-黑色系列_12页_1mb

The analysis of the Iron Ore market indicates a downturn due to heightened concerns over policy regulation and reduced valuation. Key factors include short-term supply disruptions from port issues but ample inventory buffer. Demand remains strong from iron water production but weak in finished steel, with potential production cuts adding downward pressure. Overall, the trend is bearish with a weak outlook.

For Steel Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil, reduced production is expected to provide support, leading to oscillating but generally balanced trends. Strong supply from increased production due to earlier profits and weak demand from real estate and infrastructure limit upside, though rumors of overall steel production controls offer distant support.

Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicate are in wide-ranging oscillations due to insufficient demand drivers, with the market peaking and facing negative feedback. Supply is affected but not severely constrained by factors like reduced production, leading to high inventory and short-term low-level oscillations.

Coking Coal and Metallurgical Coal are experiencing rebound after overselling but remain weak due to excess supply and demand uncertainties. Prices are consolidating amid recovery in production and inventory adjustments, but profit pressures and weak demand maintain a downward基调.

Power Coal is under pressure from increased mine maintenance and higher inventory, with supply rising and demand weakening for electricity. After a temporary market stabilization, prices are expected to remain low, contingent on ongoing supply increases despite short-term fluctuations.

Glass is short-term strong due to recent price rises and favorable inventory conditions, with targets for resistance and support levels. However, long-term pressure from weak demand and production expansion could lead to oscillations after the holiday period.