20150127-申万宏源研究_香港_-未来三个月推荐股票列表（2015年1月）_交易性投资组合推荐_23页_1mb

报告摘要

Analyst: Anthony Hu, CFA
Contact: huxh@swsresearch.com, +86 21 2329 7295
Report Date: January 27, 2015
Report ID: AXB617
Company: SWS Research
Disclosure: The company does not hold any equities or derivatives of the target company, but may provide financial advisory or investment banking services. Affiliates may hold equities exceeding 1% of issued shares. Disclosure materials can be found at www.swsresearch.com or by contacting compliance@swsresearch.com.

Total Companies: 16
Average Return: -2.13% (from December 30, 2014 to January 26, 2015)
Cumulative Return: 15.00% (from July 16, 2014 to January 26, 2015)
Benchmark (MXICN Index): 5.61% (from December 30, 2014 to January 26, 2015), 9.20% (cumulative)
Excess Return over Benchmark: -7.74%, 5.80%

Code	Company	GICS II	Closing Price (HK$/US$)	Target Price (HK$/US$)	Potential (%)
3328	BANK OF COMMUNICATIONS CO-H	Banks	6.87	8.59	25.04%
3618	CHONGQING RURAL COMMERCIAL-H	Banks	4.92	5.67	15.24%
1988	CHINA MINSHENG BANKING-H	Banks	10.20	10.90	6.86%
1829	CHINA MACHINERY ENGINEERING-H	Capital Goods	6.82	7.12	4.40%
1157	ZOOMLION HEAVY INDUSTRY - H	Capital Goods	5.01	4.81	-3.99%
6881	CHINA GALAXY SECURITIES CO-H	Diversified Financials	8.74	8.93	2.17%
6837	HAITONG SECURITIES CO LTD-H	Diversified Financials	17.48	18.90	8.12%
347	ANGANG STEEL CO LTD-H	Materials	5.74	7.70	34.15%
2689	NINE DRAGONS PAPER HOLDINGS	Materials	5.82	8.40	44.3%
1813	KWG PROPERTY HOLDING LTD	Real Estate	5.11	6.50	27.20%
3377	SINO-OCEAN LAND HOLDINGS	Real Estate	4.93	5.47	10.95%
1918	SUNAC CHINA HOLDINGS LTD	Real Estate	7.13	7.20	0.98%
902	HUANENG POWER INTL INC-H	Utilities	11.24	12.49	11.12%
6136	KANGDA INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL	Utilities	3.37	4.50	33.53%

Changes in BUY List:
- Removed: CNOOC LTD (883:HK) – lack of short-term catalysts.
- Added: YY INC-ADR (YY:US) – robust growth outlook.

The average return of the trading BUY list was -2.13%, underperforming the MXICN index by 7.74% for the period.
The cumulative return of the BUY list was 15.00%, outperforming the MXICN index by 5.80% since the first recommendation.

Investment Rating: Outperform
Closing Price: HK$6.87
Target Price: HK$8.59
Potential: 25.04%
Rationale: Trading at 0.67x 2014PB, with NPL ratio at 8.6%, suggesting risks are fully priced.
Key Assumptions: No hard landing in the Chinese economy.
Catalysts: Targeted easing, new urbanization.
Major Risks: Economy growth slowdown and liquidity problems.

Investment Rating: Outperform
Closing Price: HK$4.92
Target Price: HK$5.67
Potential: 15.24%
Rationale: Strong fundamentals, with a discount to A-share price.
Key Assumptions: No hard landing in the Chinese economy.
How We Differ from Consensus: Focus on county area deposits and increased liquidity.
Catalysts: Targeted easing.
Major Risks: Economy growth slowdown.

Investment Rating: Outperform
Closing Price: HK$10.20
Target Price: HK$10.90
Potential: 6.86%
Rationale: Trading at 0.89x 2015PB, with a 13% upside potential.
Key Assumptions: No hard landing in the Chinese economy.
How We Differ from Consensus: Better survival in financial disintermediation due to high customer loyalty and fewer investment channels.
Catalysts: Targeted easing.
Major Risks: Economy growth slowdown.

Investment Rating: Outperform
Closing Price: HK$8.74
Target Price: HK$8.93
Potential: 2.17%
Rationale: Strong client base and relationship with sector regulator.
Key Assumptions: A-share market rebound.
How We Differ from Consensus: More sensitive to A-share trading volumes.
Catalysts: SH-HK Stock Connect, A-share T+0 trading, relaxation on net capital requirements.
Major Risks: A-share market headwind.

Investment Rating: Buy
Closing Price: HK$11.24
Target Price: HK$12.49
Potential: 11.12%
Rationale: Big beneficiary of electricity reform, with high proportion of efficient power plants.
Key Assumptions: 10% CAGR in revenue growth.
How We Differ from Consensus: Expect fast growth due to asset injection from parent company.
Catalysts: Electricity reform, asset injection, coal price decline.
Major Risks: On-grid tariff cuts, coal price spikes.

Investment Rating: Trading BUY
Closing Price: HK$3.37
Target Price: HK$4.50
Potential: 33.53%
Rationale: Valuation at 13x15PE, lower than peer average of 18x15PE.
Key Assumptions: 120m tones of acquisition and expansion by 2015.
How We Differ from Consensus: Expect steady growth in water tariffs due to WWT project upgrades.
Catalysts: New projects and asset expansion.
Major Risks: Market fragmentation and low operational efficiency.

The SWS Trading BUY list includes a diverse range of companies across multiple sectors, with a focus on those showing strong growth potential or undervaluation.
The performance of the BUY list has been mixed, with some companies showing positive returns and others experiencing losses.
The SELL list includes only one company, China Petroleum & Chemical (386:HK), due to its poor performance caused by the oil price collapse.
The report highlights the importance of targeted easing, new urbanization, and electricity reform as key drivers for future performance.
The analysts emphasize the need for continued monitoring of economic conditions and sector-specific developments.

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