20150717-交银国际证券-Morning_Express_12页_755kb

Summary of Document Content

Phoenix Healthcare Group (1515.HK)

Core Content

Phoenix Healthcare Group (PHG) is well positioned for China's public hospital industry. With a unique business model, it has successfully entered the market, which is one of the largest in the world and experiencing rapid development. However, the industry faces challenges such as low efficiency, poor management, and isolation from the private sector due to systemic issues and a lack of independent medical licenses for doctors.

Main Points

• Market Position: PHG is the largest private hospital group in China, operating 15 general hospitals and 42 community clinics as of May 2015.
• Services Offered: Provides a full spectrum of healthcare services, including primary preventive care, acute care, and post-operative rehabilitation.
• Reform Opportunities: PHG has a first-mover advantage in the public hospital reform, which is supported by local governments and aimed at improving efficiency, staff income, and revenue transparency.
• Strategic Moves:
  • Entered into a cooperation agreement with Beijing Shunyi District in May 2015 to establish a new community healthcare service system.
  • Purchased 20% equity interest in UMP Healthcare for HKD180m in July 2015.
• Financial Outlook:
  • Intrinsic value estimated at HKD13.5bn (DCF-based).
  • Target price of HKD16.19, implying a 24.7% upside from the last closing price of HKD12.98.
  • P/E ratios of 40.2x for FY15E and 35.3x for FY16E.

Key Financial Indicators

Stock Data

• 52-Week High (HK$): 17.20
• 52-Week Low (HK$): 9.50
• Market Cap (HK$m): 10,822.24
• Issued Shares (m): 833.76
• Avg Daily Vol (m): 3.77
• 1-Month Change (%): -11.94
• YTD Change (%): -9.23
• 50d MA (HK$): 14.73
• 200d MA (HK$): 14.09
• 14-Day RSI: 43.7

China Eastern Airlines (670.HK)

Core Content

China Eastern Airlines (CEA) announced a positive profit alert, indicating improved performance in the first half of 2015. The company is expected to benefit from strong demand and a lower fuel price environment.

Main Points

• Profit Alert: CEA's 1H15 earnings are expected to increase by 25x to 26x compared to 1H14.
• Estimated Earnings: Between RMB3.5bn and RMB3.7bn for 1H15.
• Performance Drivers: Strong demand from travelers and a favorable fuel price environment.
• Recommendation: LT BUY with a target price of HK$6.70, implying a 14.5% upside from the last closing price of HK$5.85.
• Valuation: Trading at 9.6x PER and 1.6x PBR on forecast FY15 EPS and BVPS.

Cathay Pacific Airlines (293.HK)

Core Content

Cathay Pacific Airways (CPA) released June 2015 operating data, showing stable growth in RPK and notable increases in certain regions.

Main Points

• RPK Growth: Overall RPK growth of 7.8% YoY, with strong growth in Southeast Asia and Europe.
• PLF Growth: Overall PLF of 87.2%, up 1.3 ppts YoY, with China's PLF rising to 81.4%.
• Cargo RFTK: Overall growth of 2.2% YoY in June.
• Recommendation: BUY with a target price of HK$21.80, implying a 15.3% upside.
• Valuation: Trading at 1.32x PBR and 11.45x PER on forecast FY15 BVPS and EPS.

Transportation Sector

Core Content

The transportation sector showed signs of recovery, with increased demand in dry bulk markets and steady growth in container and cargo throughput at major ports.

Main Points

• Dry Bulk Markets: BDI surged by 13.2% YoY and CDFI by 6.4% YoW.
• Container and Cargo Throughput:
  • Container throughput at major coastal and river ports increased by 5.0% YoY in June.
  • Cargo throughput at major coastal ports increased by 4.5% YoY.
• One Belt and One Road: Exports to countries along the initiative recorded double-digit growth in 1H2015.
• Market Performance:
  • Hang Seng Index rose 0.4% to 25,162.
  • Shanghai A-shares and Shenzhen A-shares also showed positive performance.

Economic and Market Highlights

Key Economic Indicators

• ADB Forecasts: Reduced China and Asia's developing countries' GDP growth forecasts for FY16/17.
• PBoC Operations: Conducted a RMB20 bn reverse repurchase exercise at 2.5% interest rate, resulting in a net return of RMB45 bn.
• China's Mobile Game Income: Expected to reach USD6.5 bn in 2015, 3x higher than FY13 and significantly more than FY14.

Stock Market Reactions

• Hong Kong: Major blue-chip stocks like COLI and CR Land led gains.
• US and Europe: S&P 500 and DJIA both rose, while Stoxx Europe 600 saw a 1.4% increase.

BOCOM Research Latest Reports

• Recent Reports: Cover various sectors including Property, Energy, Consumer Discretionary, and Transportation.
• Key Analysts: Geoffrey Cheng, CFA, David Li, Anita Chu, and others have published reports on different companies and market sectors.

Hang Seng Index Constituents

• Selected Companies: CKH HOLDINGS, CLP HOLDINGS, HONG KG CHINA GS, WHARF HLDG, HSBC HLDGS PLC, etc.
• Performance Metrics: Include share price, market cap, 5-day change, YTD change, and valuation ratios like P/E and P/B.