20150804-招商证券_香港_-Morning_Express_12页_606kb
报告摘要
Macau Gaming Summary
Core Content
- July GGR Performance: Macau's Gaming Revenue (GGR) for July 2015 declined by 34.5% YoY to MOP18,615mn, with a 3.8% MoM increase from MOP579mn in June. This MoM improvement was higher than the 1.0% MoM improvement in July 2014.
- Segment Performance:
- VIP segment: Estimated to have declined by c.45% YoY.
- Mass segment: Declined by c.20% YoY, mainly due to continued weakness in the premium mass segment.
- Policy Impact: The policy environment in Macau turned positive in early July with the return of the relaxed transit visa policy and an easing tone on the smoking ban. However, the impact on GGR is still lagging.
- Market Expectations: The decline in July was in line with the market expectation of 35% YoY but worse than the earlier expectation of 25%-33% YoY.
- Future Outlook: The GGR YoY decline is expected to narrow in August to c.33%, and the full-year 2015E GGR is projected to decline by 32% YoY due to a 26% YoY decline in 2H15E.
- Sector Valuation: The sector currently trades at 32x P/E and 17x EV/EBITDA on FY15E forecasts, which are higher than the historical averages of 18.5x 1-yr forward P/E and 13.5x 1-yr forward EV/EBITDA.
- Operator Performance:
- Galaxy Entertainment: Expected to outperform with QoQ earnings improvement in 3Q15E due to the ramp-up of Galaxy Macau 2.
- SJM and Galaxy: Expected to report 56% and 50% YoY EBITDA drops, respectively, which may lead to a short-term correction.
- Key Risks:
- Decline in grind mass gaming.
- Slower-than-expected ramp-up of new casino properties.
Main Points
- The July GGR decline reflects a continued weak demand and seasonal factors, though the policy environment has improved.
- The market is expecting the GGR decline to narrow in the coming months due to the base effect.
- Galaxy Entertainment is highlighted as a preferred choice for its potential to recover in 3Q15E.
- The sector's valuation is considered challenging ahead of the results season.
Key Information
- July GGR: MOP18,615mn, down 34.5% YoY, up 3.8% MoM.
- VIP GGR: Estimated to have dropped by c.45% YoY.
- Mass GGR: Down c.20% YoY.
- Valuation: 32x P/E, 17x EV/EBITDA on FY15E forecasts.
- Expected GGR Improvement: Narrowing YoY decline in August to c.33%, and full-year 2015E GGR drop of 32% YoY.
- Operator Performance:
- SJM: Expected to report a 56% YoY EBITDA drop.
- Galaxy: Expected to report a 50% YoY EBITDA drop.
- Valuation Challenges: Expected due to weak results and upcoming results season.
What to Watch
Economic Data
| Country | Date | Event | Prior | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. | 2015/08/04 | Durable Goods, R MM | -2.10% | -- |
| U.S. | 2015/08/04 | Factory Orders MM | -1.00% | 1.40% |
| U.S. | 2015/08/05 | API weekly crude stocks | -- | -- |
| China | -- | Caixin Services PMI | 51.80 | 51.24 |
| Euro zone | -- | Retail Sales MM | 0.20% | 0.30% |
| U.S. | -- | ADP National Employment | 238.00k | 215.00k |
| U.S. | -- | International Trade MM $ | -41.90bn | -42.00bn |
| U.S. | -- | ISM N-Mfg PMI | 56.00 | 56.00 |
| U.S. | -- | EIA Weekly Crude Stocks | -4.20mn | -- |
| Germany | 2015/08/06 | Industrial Orders MM | -0.20% | 1.21% |
| U.S. | -- | Initial Jobless Claims | 267k | 284k |
| Germany | 2015/08/07 | Exports MM SA | 1.63% | -- |
| U.S. | -- | Non-Farm Payrolls | 223k | 218k |
| U.S. | -- | Private Payrolls | 223k | 215k |
| U.S. | -- | Manufacturing Payrolls | 4k | 5k |
| U.S. | -- | Unemployment Rate | 5.3% | 5.3% |
| U.S. | -- | Average Earnings MM | -- | 0.2% |
| China | 2015/08/08 | Exports YY | 2.8% | -- |
| China | -- | Imports YY | -6.1% | -- |
| China | -- | Trade Balance | $46.54bn | $49bn |
| China | 2015/08/09 | PPI YY | -4.8% | -5.55% |
| China | -- | CPI YY | 1.4% | 1.4% |
Company Events
| Date | Ticker | Company | Event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015/08/04 | 215 HK | Hutchison Telecommunications Hong Kong Holdings Ltd. | INT RES/DIV (6-MTH-ENDDED30/06/15) |
| 2015/08/04 | 715 HK | China Oceanwide Holdings Ltd. | INT RES/DIV (6-MTH-ENDDED30/06/15) |
| 2015/08/04 | 743 HK | Asia Cement (China) Holdings Corporation | INT RES/DIV (6-MTH-ENDDED30/06/15) |
| 2015/08/04 | 1347 HK | Hua Hong Semiconductor Limited | 2ND QUARTER RES (FR01/04/15TO30/06/15) |
| 2015/08/04 | 1347 HK | Hua Hong Semiconductor Limited | INT RES (6-MTH-ENDDED30/06/15) |
| 2015/08/04 | 2282 HK | MGM China Holdings Limited | INT RES/DIV (6-MTH-ENDDED30/06/15) |
| 2015/08/04 | 3999 HK | DaChan Food (Asia) Ltd. | INT RES (6-MTH-ENDDED30/06/15) |
| 2015/08/04 | 8095 HK | Beijing Beida Jade Bird Universal Sci-Tech Co. Ltd. - H Shares | 2ND QTR RES/INT DIV (6-MTH-ENDDED30/06/15) |
Research Coverage List
| Company | Ticker | Rating | Share px Aug. 3 | 12-month TP % Upside | Mkt cap (US$mn) 2014 | EPS 2015E | EPS 2016E | EPS 2014 | P/E 2015E | P/E 2016E | Analyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brilliance China | 1114 HK | BUY | HK$10.18 | HK$12.5 | 23 | 1.07 | 0.86 | 0.99 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 9.5 |
| China ZhengTong Auto | 1728 HK | BUY | HK$3.91 | HK$5.48 | 40 | 0.36 | 0.42 | 0.51 | 8.6 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| Geely Automobile | 175 HK | BUY | HK$3.16 | HK$4.0 | 27 | 0.16 | 0.24 | 0.31 | 15.7 | 10.5 | 10.5 |
| BAIC Motor | 1958 HK | BUY | HK$6.48 | HK$12.81 | 98 | 0.70 | 0.81 | 1.07 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 6.4 |
| Great Wall Motor | 2333 HK | NEUTRAL | HK$24.75 | HK$28.5 | 15 | 2.64 | 3.10 | 3.40 | 7.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 |
| Fuyao Glass | 3606 HK | BUY | HK$16.46 | HK$22.7 | 38 | 1.11 | 1.10 | 1.22 | 11.8 | 12.0 | 12.0 |
| China Harmony Auto | 3836 HK | NEUTRAL | HK$5.57 | HK$6.7 | 20 | 0.50 | 0.42 | 0.45 | 8.8 | 10.6 | 10.6 |
| Zhongsheng Group | 881 HK | NEUTRAL | HK$4.5 | HK$4.75 | 6 | 0.35 | 0.39 | 0.48 | 10.2 | 9.2 | 9.2 |
| Sinopec Oilfield Service | 1033 HK | NEUTRAL | HK$2.34 | HK$3.4 | 45 | 0.19 | 0.10 | 0.15 | 17.2 | 32.6 | 32.6 |
| China Oilfield Services | 2883 HK | NEUTRAL | HK$9.41 | HK$11.9 | 26 | 1.57 | 0.62 | 0.69 | 4.8 | 12.2 | 12.2 |
| Petrochina | 857 HK | BUY | HK$7.47 | HK$11.0 | 47 | 0.59 | 0.36 | 0.46 | 10.0 | 16.6 | 16.6 |
| CNOOC | 883 HK | BUY | HK$9.47 | HK$13.0 | 37 | 1.35 | 0.73 | 1.04 | 5.6 | 10.4 | 10.4 |
| China Resources Land | 1109 HK | BUY | HK$21.2 | HK$27.7 | 31 | 2.16 | 2.80 | 3.05 | 9.8 | 7.6 | 7.6 |
| KWG Property | 1813 HK | BUY | HK$5.78 | HK$7.8 | 35 | 1.10 | 1.27 | 1.50 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 4.6 |
| Country Garden | 2007 HK | NEUTRAL | HK$3.01 | HK$3.4 | 13 | 0.67 | 0.55 | 0.56 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 5.3 |
| Agile Property | 3383 HK | BUY | HK$4.42 | HK$7.1 | 61 | 1.42 | 1.35 | 1.38 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| Greentown China | 3900 HK | BUY | HK$7.4 | HK$12.0 | 62 | 1.21 | 1.74 | 1.83 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 4.3 |
| China Overseas Land | 688 HK | BUY | HK$24.25 | HK$33.5 | 38 | 2.92 | 3.54 | 4.19 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 6.9 |
| CQRCB | 3618 HK | BUY | HK$5.43 | HK$7.36 | 36 | 0.73 | 0.80 | 0.88 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.9 |
| BOC | 3988 HK | BUY | HK$4.23 | HK$5.98 | 41 | 0.61 | 0.59 | 0.60 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| China Construction Bank | 939 HK | BUY | HK$6.31 | HK$8.47 | 34 | 0.91 | 0.92 | 0.93 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| CITIC Bank | 998 HK | SELL | HK$5.54 | HK$5.0 | -10 | 0.87 | 0.85 | 0.83 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 |
| Galaxy Entertainment | 27 HK | BUY | HK$34.7 | HK$38.8 | 12 | 2.44 | 1.50 | 1.99 | 14.2 | 23.1 | 17.4 |
| MGM China | 2282 HK | NEUTRAL | HK$15.86 | HK$17.5 | 10 | 1.50 | 0.81 | 0.87 | 10.6 | 19.6 | 18.2 |
| Sands China | 1928 HK | SELL | HK$33.9 | HK$28.4 | -16 | 35,241 | 1.20 | 0.64 | 0.40 | 13.8 | 23.4 |
| Melco Crown | MPEL US | NEUTRAL | US$20.49 | US$22.8 | 11 | 11,253 | 1.11 | 0.23 | 0.72 | 18.5 | 89.1 |
Summary
The report provides an analysis of the Macau gaming sector and related macroeconomic factors. Despite a positive policy environment, the sector still faces challenges in translating this into improved GGR performance. The July GGR declined by 34.5% YoY, but showed a 3.8% MoM increase, which is higher than the previous year's improvement. The VIP segment declined by c.45% YoY, while the mass segment declined by c.20% YoY. The sector is expected to see a narrowing YoY decline in August and a full-year 32% YoY drop. Galaxy Entertainment is seen as a potential outperformer due to the ramp-up of Galaxy Macau 2. Key risks include continued weakness in mass gaming and delays in new property development. The report also covers other sectors, including technology, media, and retail, and highlights the importance of upcoming economic data and company results for market sentiment.
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