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Soybean and Soybean Meal Market Update: Summary

1 Global Soybean Supply and Demand

• Global Supply Surge: Global soybean inventory-to-use ratio is projected to reach 22.5%, reflecting a continuous recovery in supply over three years. Brazil's expanded planting area and higher production volume, along with policy incentives, contribute to this trend.
• Demand Constraints: Soybean demand growth remains relatively stagnant, limiting upward pressure on prices. The global inventory-to-use ratio continues to rise, indicating a consistently ample supply condition.

2 Brazil and U.S. Soybean Markets

• Brazil's Record Output: Brazil is expected to produce over 170 million tons of soybeans in the 2024/25 season, setting another record and adding to global supply pressure. Brazil's new-crop export basis (basis) remains relatively high (around 100-150 cents), but prices face downward pressure due to fears of new-crop supply competition.
• U.S. Market Outlook: The U.S. soybean market faces lower planting intentions as profit margins shrink. Reduced export competitiveness and potential changes in U.S. biofuel policies could support 2026 soybean inventory reduction.

3 China's Soybean and Meal Market

• Domestic Supply Concerns: China's high soybean import volumes (over 15.2 million tons year-to-date as of November 2024) create ongoing supply pressure. The domestic soybean meal market remains weak due to reduced feed demand and a surplus of inventories.
• Price Volatility Drivers: Price movements are influenced by basis changes, import costs, and domestic stocking-up behaviors. Analysts suggest marginal support for prices if U.S. planting area decreases significantly due to profitability challenges.
• Downside Risk: If Brazil increases its export basis, Chinese demand for Argentinian soy could stimulate prices. However, Brazil's market potential as a primary supplier remains a concern.

4 2025 Outlook and Trading Strategy

• Key Drivers:
  • Brazil's planting expansion and pricing power maintaining global supply dominance.
  • China's demand uncertainty linked to livestock profitability decline and reduced import volumes.
  • Fewer upside catalysts for price support compared to earlier in the year.
• Recommendations:
  • Trading Strategy: Focus on near-term carry trades (e.g., 5-9 month spread).
  • Long-term Focus: Monitor U.S. planting decisions and global trade developments.

5 Risk Assessment

• Volatility Risk: Market sensitivity to trade policies, particularly U.S.-China tensions and shifting supply-demand dynamics.
• Margin Pressure: Persistently weak demand in China could limit price recovery despite potential input shortages.

Disclaimer
This report serves as a reference and does not constitute an investment recommendation. Market participants should conduct their analyses independently.