期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-summer2002_44页_486kb

NBER Summer 2002 Summary

Core Content

The NBER Reporter for Summer 2002 provides an overview of the Development of the American Economy (DAE) program and highlights key research areas and initiatives undertaken by NBER members. It also includes summaries of research findings in financial economics, tax systems, and the history of the NBER.

Main Research Areas

1. Government and the Economy

• New Deal Spending:
  • Research by Fishback, Horace, Kantor, and Wallis examines the impact of New Deal spending on local economies and migration.
  • Large-scale public works (e.g., dams, roads, sanitation) were effective in boosting local economies and in-migration.
  • Relief spending had smaller economic impacts but contributed to home ownership and reduced infant mortality.
  • The distribution of funds often favored high-income districts, and spending was used strategically for political advantage.

2. State Constitutions

• Project Overview:
  • John Wallis is constructing a comprehensive database of state constitutions from 1776 to the present.
  • This project aims to provide historical insights into state governance and economic policies, including corporate regulation, taxation, education, and resource use.
  • The database allows researchers to analyze differences and changes in state policies over time.
  • By the end of the project, a full index of all articles and sections of every state constitution will be available.

3. Corruption and Reform

• Research Focus:
  • A new DAE initiative explores the roots of reform in America, particularly in the context of corruption in the late 19th century.
  • The project includes a pre-conference on "Corruption and Reform" with contributions from economists, historians, and political scientists.
  • It discusses the evolution of the regulatory state, progressivism, and the historical impact of corruption on economic development.

4. Health, Mortality, and Nutrition over the Long Run

• Key Findings:
  • Mortality decline in the U.S. over time is attributed to urban public works, scientific advances, and improved living conditions.
  • Urbanization in the 19th century initially worsened mortality differences by socioeconomic status.
  • Dora L. Costa's research shows that early life conditions, such as urban residence, infectious disease, and stature, significantly affect adult mortality.
  • Richard H. Steckel's work extends health and nutrition analysis back to the early Middle Ages, showing a decline in European height during the 14th to 18th centuries, reversed by trade and food availability in the 19th century.

5. NBER History and Archives

• Founding and Mission:

  • The NBER was founded in 1920 to conduct objective quantitative analysis of the American economy.
  • Its early history is documented in works like those of Solomon Fabricant, and the contributions of Simon Kuznets and Robert Gallman are highlighted.
  • Kuznets was pivotal in developing national income accounting and economic growth models.
  • Robert Gallman extended Kuznets’s work and contributed to the NBER’s historical data, leaving behind an unfinished manuscript and "underground" annual series.

• Archival Efforts:

  • An oral history project is underway to document the experiences of NBER researchers from the 1940s to 1960s.
  • The NBER maintains a comprehensive historical archive, including Annual Reports, financial reports, occasional papers, and conference volumes, accessible to researchers.

Research Summaries

1. Performance Evaluation in Financial Economics

• Methodology:

  • Performance evaluation (PE) involves comparing actual returns to benchmark returns to identify "abnormal" returns.
  • Jensen (1968) introduced the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) as a benchmark for PE studies.
  • Recent developments include new models for benchmark returns and applications in both investor performance and corporate finance.

• Applications:

  • Investment Newsletters:
    • Analysis of 153 newsletters over 17 years shows that they do not provide significant abnormal returns.
    • Transactions data improve the precision of PE, with a median improvement of 10% over multifactor models.
  • Insider Trading:
    • Insider purchase portfolios show abnormal returns, while sale portfolios do not.
    • These returns are attributed to slow adjustment as investors learn about governance effects.
  • Corporate Governance:
    • A study by Metrick, Gompers, and Ishii shows that firms with stronger shareholder rights perform better in terms of profits and growth.
    • An investment strategy based on governance indices yielded 8.5% annual abnormal returns between 1990 and 1999.
    • The results suggest a possible link between governance and firm performance, though causality is not definitively established.

Key Information

• The DAE program covers a wide range of topics, including public finance, health, aging, trade, and productivity.
• The NBER's website offers access to over 5,000 working papers, books, and a macroeconomic history database with 3,500 time series.
• The NBER is a private, nonprofit organization that relies on contributions from individuals, corporations, and foundations.
• The States Constitutions Project is a major initiative by John Wallis, now over halfway complete, with a web interface for accessing and searching constitutional texts and amendments.
• The history of the NBER is being documented through oral histories and existing publications, including autobiographies and NBER volumes.
• Performance evaluation is a central method in financial economics, evolving from Jensen’s CAPM to more sophisticated models, with applications in investor and corporate finance.

Conferences and Publications

• A pre-conference on "Corruption and Reform" was held in July 2002, bringing together economists, historians, and political scientists.
• The NBER Reporter is an informational publication, not reviewed by the Board of Directors, and can be freely reproduced with proper attribution.
• The NBER's Public Information Department is responsible for handling reproductions of the Reporter.

Conclusion

The NBER Summer 2002 Reporter reflects the breadth and depth of research conducted by the NBER's DAE program and other initiatives. It covers long-term economic development, the impact of New Deal programs, state constitutions, health and mortality trends, and the evolution of performance evaluation in financial economics. The report also highlights the importance of historical data and the NBER's ongoing efforts to preserve and share its research legacy.