期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-2017number2_44页_1mb

NBER Reporter Summary - June 2017

Core Content

The NBER Reporter is a quarterly publication by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a private, nonprofit research organization founded in 1920. It highlights recent research from the Development of the American Economy (DAE) Program, which focuses on historical aspects of the American economy. The program is led by economic historians who explore various subfields of economics, including macroeconomics, public finance, and labor economics.

Main Topics and Key Research Areas

1. Health and Economic Growth

• Health as a Key Indicator: Health is a crucial aspect of well-being not captured in standard national income measures. Long-term health changes reveal both positive and negative dimensions of economic growth.
• Impact of Industrialization: Industrialization in 19th century England reduced life expectancy in factory towns due to pollution from coal.
• Coal Pollution and Health: Studies show that coal pollution had measurable negative effects on health and life expectancy. For instance, the reduction in soft coal use from 1945 to 1960 due to natural gas availability saved many lives.
• Massachusetts Case Study: Marcella Alsan and Claudia Goldin found that water and sewerage projects in Massachusetts contributed to a 37% decline in infant mortality from 1880 to 1915.
• Data Issues: Early infant mortality data was often overstated due to incomplete birth records, especially in southern states and for African Americans.
• Tuskegee Study Legacy: The Tuskegee Syphilis Study led to a lasting mistrust of medicine among African Americans, affecting their health outcomes and life expectancy.

2. Immigration and Migration

• Immigration's Role: Immigration has historically influenced U.S. population growth and economic activity.
• Mass Migration Era: From 1850 to 1920, 14% of the U.S. population was foreign born, and this share has recently returned to historical highs.
• Migrant Selection and Assimilation: DAE researchers have explored how migrants were selected and how they assimilated into the U.S. labor market and society.
• Norwegian Migrants: Linked datasets show that migrants from Norway were not positively selected, indicating that migration was driven by economic necessity rather than skill.
• Great Migration: The Great Migration of African Americans to northern and western cities had significant economic effects, including increased earnings but also competition with existing black workers.
• Residential Segregation: Internal mobility contributed to the rise in racial segregation from 1880 to 1940. The Logan-Parman index, based on census data, provides a new measure of segregation.
• Cultural Assimilation: Cultural assimilation among immigrants occurred over time, with significant effects on economic outcomes and social integration.

3. The Great Depression and the New Deal

• Economic Reversals: The Great Depression of the 1930s and the 2007-09 recession are major economic reversals studied by DAE researchers.
• Banking Crises: The collapse of public bond markets during the Depression constrained firms' ability to finance operations, with effects varying based on debt maturity.
• Interbank Withdrawals: During banking panics, heavy withdrawals by banks transmitted distress through balance-sheet effects and reduced lending before the 1933 bank holiday.
• Devaluation and Recovery: The devaluation of the dollar in 1933 had a significant positive effect on the agricultural sector, contributing to industrial output growth.
• New Deal Programs: The New Deal included various programs like Old Age Assistance (OAA), which affected older men's labor supply. State-level variations in program generosity led to clear labor supply effects, with OAA reducing labor force participation by 5.7 percentage points among 65- to 74-year-old men.

Key Information

• DAE Program: The DAE Program was established in 1978 and has been led by Claudia Goldin since 1989. In July 2017, Leah Boustan and William Collins will co-direct the program.
• Research Methods: The program has increasingly adopted mainstream economic methods and is now more integrated into the broader economics field.
• Policy Implications: Research on historical data and natural experiments helps improve current policy understanding and implementation.
• Funding and Independence: The NBER relies on funding from individuals, corporations, and private foundations to maintain its independence and flexibility.
• Subscription Information: Print copies of the Reporter are mailed only to U.S. and Canadian subscribers; electronic subscriptions are available for others.

Conclusion

The NBER Reporter provides a comprehensive overview of recent research from the DAE Program, highlighting the interplay between economic growth, health, immigration, and policy. These studies offer valuable insights into historical trends and their implications for contemporary economic issues, emphasizing the importance of historical analysis in understanding modern economic phenomena.