期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-2011no4_36页_1mb

NBER Reporter Summary - 2011 Number 4

Core Content

The NBER Reporter issue from 2011 Number 4 provides an overview of the Development of the American Economy (DAE) Program and highlights recent research in corporate tax policy, corporate governance, environmental degradation, and climate change. It also includes information about the NBER's structure, funding, and upcoming events.

Main Research Areas

1. Development of the American Economy

• The DAE Program, established in 1978, encompasses a wide range of empirical economic research, spanning global and historical contexts.
• Its mission aligns with the NBER's original goal of analyzing the development of the American economy and its statistical foundations.
• Research focuses on the long-term consequences of environmental degradation and historical corporate finance.

Key Research Findings

1. Historical Corporate Governance and Financial Crises

• DAE researchers have challenged the notion that corporate governance failures are a modern phenomenon.
• Early corporate governance problems were common, including "tunneling" by controlling shareholders and lack of monitoring by small shareholders.
• Graduated voting rights were introduced in the early 19th century to reduce the power of large shareholders and increase small shareholder influence.
• These voting rights were later abandoned due to incompatibility with mergers, enforcement difficulties, and strategic behavior.
• Financial crises have historically led to changes in legal protections and regulations, such as those seen in the Dodd-Frank Act.

2. Environmental and Climate Change Research

• Lead exposure in the early 20th century had significant negative impacts on infant mortality, manufacturing productivity, and intelligence test scores.
• Water rights and property rights remain relevant in addressing environmental challenges.
• The London fog and the American Dust Bowl are analyzed as historical examples of environmental degradation and its economic consequences.
• Research suggests that past agricultural adaptation to climate change offers valuable lessons for future policy and resilience.

Corporate Tax Research Highlights

1. Corporate Tax Incentives and Capital Structure

• Modigliani and Miller (M&M) laid the foundation for corporate finance research, showing that tax considerations can influence firm value.
• A 10 percentage point increase in tax rate is associated with a 0.7 percentage point increase in debt usage.
• Tax incentives do not necessarily lead to significant financial distress, as evidenced by studies of the Great Depression and the 2008-2009 recession.

2. Tax-Loss Carrybacks and Economic Stimulus

• Tax-loss carrybacks have served as a stabilizer for firms during economic downturns.
• During the 2008-2009 recession, extending the carryback period from two to five years provided an additional $54 billion in tax refunds.
• This stimulus was especially beneficial to profitable sectors like housing, finance, and auto.

3. Dividend Payout Policy

• The 2003 Bush tax cuts reduced dividend and capital gains tax rates, making dividends more attractive to investors.
• However, the impact on corporate payout decisions was moderate, with non-tax factors such as long-term earnings sustainability playing a more significant role.
• Executive stock options can influence dividend decisions, as paying dividends reduces the value of existing options.

4. Taxes on Foreign Profits

• There is ongoing debate over whether U.S. firms should pay taxes on profits earned abroad.
• The DAE Program explores the implications of these tax policies on corporate behavior and economic outcomes.

NBER Structure and Funding

• The NBER is a private, nonprofit research organization founded in 1920.
• It is supported by individuals, corporations, and private foundations.
• The Board of Directors includes prominent economists and financial experts from various institutions.
• The Reporter is an informational publication, not copyrighted, and can be freely reproduced with proper attribution.

Conferences and Publications

• Several DAE-related papers were presented at NBER conferences and published in The Economics of Climate Change.
• These studies focus on historical adjustments to climate change through new technologies, legal reforms, and property rights.

Conclusion

The DAE Program's research underscores the long-term economic and social impacts of historical events and policies, from corporate governance to environmental changes. It also highlights the moderate role of tax incentives in shaping corporate behavior, suggesting that while taxes matter, they are not the sole determinant of financial decisions. The NBER continues to be a vital source of empirical and policy-relevant research in economics.