期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-spring1998_51页_5mb

NBER Reporter Summary - Spring 1998

Core Content

The NBER Reporter for Spring 1998 highlights various research initiatives and summaries from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), focusing on the development of the American economy, school reform, pensions, and international capital flows. The report features contributions from NBER researchers who explore historical economic trends and their implications for current policy and understanding.

Main Research Topics and Key Findings

1. Development of the American Economy

• Focus: Long-run economic development and growth, with an emphasis on historical analysis.
• Key Initiatives:
  • The DAE Program has been researching the impact of the Great Depression on fiscal and monetary policy, regulation, and trade.
  • A new initiative on urban economic history is set to launch in Summer 1998.

2. Immigrant Flow in the 19th Century

• Researcher: Joseph P. Ferrie
• Key Findings:
  • High immigration in the U.S. occurred before the Civil War, with the greatest inflow measured as a fraction of the population.
  • Immigrants who arrived with occupational skills, were literate, and settled in rapidly growing communities experienced better economic outcomes.
  • Immigrant wealth accumulation increased by about 10% per year of residence.
  • Native-born Americans were highly mobile, with 47% changing their county of residence between 1850 and 1860.
  • Spatial assimilation of immigrants was faster in the 1850s than in the 1970s, driven by native behavior, not immigrant characteristics.
  • "Safety valve" hypothesis is supported by the migration of unskilled workers to the western frontier.

3. Early 20th-Century Origins of Tariff Policy

• Researcher: Douglas A. Irwin
• Key Findings:
  • The Smoot-Hawley Act (1930) raised tariffs but only partially contributed to the decline in U.S. trade during the early 1930s.
  • Political log-rolling (vote trading) played a significant role in the passage of Smoot-Hawley, not just partisan politics.
  • Specific duties were more common than ad valorem duties in the U.S. tariff code, and deflation increased the ad valorem equivalent of these duties.
  • Inflation after World War II reduced the impact of specific duties, contributing to a decline in average tariffs.
  • Trade liberalization became bipartisan after the 1930s, with the RTAA (1934) and eventual support from Republicans in the 1940s.

4. Change in Technology in the 19th and 20th Centuries

• Researchers: Naomi R. Lamoreaux and Kenneth L. Sokoloff
• Key Findings:
  • New England and Middle Atlantic states led in patenting throughout the 19th and early 20th centuries.
  • Technology markets encouraged specialization in inventive activity, independent of production location.
  • In-house R&D was not necessarily more efficient or less costly than market-based technology trade.
  • High school education expansion (1910-1940) was linked to higher income, greater wealth, less manufacturing, more equality, and community stability.
  • High school graduation rates in the early 20th century correlate with current educational performance and social capital.

5. Industrial Regionalization and Localization Patterns

• Researcher: Sukkoo Kim
• Key Findings:
  • Regional specialization in manufacturing increased from 1860 to 1900, stabilized in the interwar years, and declined after the 1930s.
  • Factor endowments and comparative advantage explain the geographic distribution of manufacturing.
  • Urban development in the U.S. has occurred in three distinct phases: mercantile-port cities (1790-1820), industrial cities (1820-1920), and service cities (1920-present).
  • Industrial structures played a key role in the divergence and convergence of regional incomes between the 19th and 20th centuries.

Research Summaries

The Economics of School Reform

• Author: Caroline M. Hoxby
• Key Points:
  • Structural school reforms are being debated, including charter schools, open enrollment, and school choice.
  • Voucher programs are popular among private donors, though less supported by state legislatures.
  • School finance has become centralized at the state level, with a focus on equalizing funding between districts.
  • Despite increased funding for disadvantaged students, student outcomes have not improved significantly.
  • Economics provides valuable tools for analyzing school reform through empirical methods, economic arguments, and a focus on human capital investment.

Empirical Evidence on School Choice

• Key Points:
  • Traditional forms of school choice include choice among public school districts and choice between public and private schools.
  • Choice among districts is influenced by the number of districts and the evenness of enrollment distribution.
  • Herfindahl index is used to measure enrollment concentration, with lower values indicating more choice.
  • IV estimates help identify the causal effects of school choice, controlling for background variables and self-segregation.
  • School choice reforms are built upon traditional forms, and understanding their effects is essential for predicting broader impacts.

Key Organizations and Individuals

• NBER Directors:
  • President and CEO: Martin Feldstein
  • Director of Finance: Sam Parker
  • Board of Directors: Includes John H. Biggs, Carl F. Christ, Gerald A. Polansky, etc.
  • Directors by University Appointment: Includes George Akerlof, Jagdish Bhagwati, William Brainard, etc.
  • Directors by Appointment of Other Organizations: Includes Marcel Boyer, Mark Drabenstott, etc.

Additional Sections

• Conferences: Features upcoming and past events related to economic research.
• Bureau News: Includes updates on NBER activities and publications.
• Bureau Books: Lists books published by the NBER.
• Current Working Papers: Highlights ongoing research and publications.

Conclusion

The NBER Reporter for Spring 1998 underscores the importance of historical economic analysis in understanding current economic and policy issues. It emphasizes the role of immigration, tariff policy, technological change, and educational development in shaping the American economy over time. The report also discusses the economic implications of school reform and the value of empirical research in informing policy decisions.