期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-fall2005_56页_617kb

NBER Summary: Fall 2005 Issue

Core Content Overview

The NBER Reporter Fall 2005 issue highlights the Development of the American Economy (DAE) program and various research areas within the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). It includes summaries of recent research findings, insights into economic history, and discussions on financial and labor market behaviors. The issue also introduces a new NBER email service that provides free access to U.S. government data releases.

Main Research Areas in the DAE Program

1. Political Economy

• Corruption and Reform: A conference explored the historical pattern of corruption in the U.S. and the reforms that reduced it. The book Corruption and Reform: Lessons from America's Economic History discusses the role of institutional changes, such as the New Deal, and the impact of a strong and independent press on reducing corruption.
• Initial Conditions and Economic Development: Stanley L. Engerman and Kenneth L. Sokoloff examine how colonial land-to-labor ratios and economic inequality influenced long-term development. High inequality, often linked to slavery, stifled investment in education and reduced economic growth.
• State vs. Federal Government Spending: John J. Wallis investigates why states, rather than the federal government, were historically the main spending units. His work with Barry Weingast suggests that political and fiscal factors led to this pattern.
• Fair Housing Laws: William J. Collins analyzes the political economy behind the adoption of state fair housing laws before federal legislation in 1968.
• Water Rights and Trade: Gary D. Libecap reassesses the historical purchase of water rights by Los Angeles, linking it to broader economic and political implications.

2. Labor and Population

• Women's Economic Status: Claudia Goldin and others examine long-term trends in women's career and family decisions, highlighting the impact of social and economic changes.
• Health and Mortality: Dora Costa and Matthew Kahn use Union Army records to analyze issues like desertion, diversity in combat units, and the treatment of prisoners of war.
• Health and Urban Development: Werner Troesken explores the paradox of increased life expectancy among African-Americans in the early 20th century despite civil rights challenges. He links this to shared health issues like access to clean water.
• Intergenerational Mobility: Joseph P. Ferrie and Jason Long compare economic mobility in the U.S. and England, finding greater mobility in the U.S. until 1900 and similar levels since 1950.
• Urban Riots and Economic Impact: Robert A. Margo and William J. Collins assess the long-term effects of 1960s riots on African-American employment and property values.

3. Productivity

• Innovation and Institutions: B. Zorina Khan’s book The Democratization of Invention discusses the evolution of intellectual property rights and their role in fostering inventiveness and economic growth.
• U.S. vs. U.K. Productivity: Douglas A. Irwin and Stephen N. Broadberry find that the U.S. surpassed the U.K. in industrial productivity from 1840, despite lower service productivity.
• World War I Mobilization: Hugh Rockoff shows that the U.S. economy mobilized rapidly during World War I, contrary to conventional wisdom.

4. Financial History and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

• U.S. Foreign Policy and Debt Markets: Kris J. Mitchener and Marc D. Weidenmier demonstrate how the Roosevelt Corollary and gunboat diplomacy influenced debt markets and trade in the Caribbean.
• Trade and Democracy: Christopher M. Meissner uses a gravity model to show that trade openness fostered democratization after 1895.
• Foreign Currency Debt and Crises: Michael Bordo and Christopher Meissner find that foreign currency debt contributed to financial crises in 30 countries between 1880 and 1913.
• Sovereign Debt Repudiation: John J. Wallis, Richard E. Sylla, and others examine state defaults in the early 1840s, attributing them to land revenue losses and fiscal mismanagement.
• Business Cycle Dating: Joseph H. Davis constructs a new pre-World War I chronology of U.S. business cycles, updating more than 40% of peak and trough dates.

Key Information and Insights

• The DAE program spans a wide range of economic history topics, from political economy to labor, productivity, and financial history.
• Research often connects historical data with current economic issues, emphasizing long-term trends and their relevance to modern policy.
• The NBER offers a free email service that provides daily links to U.S. government data releases.
• The taste for immediate gratification is a significant behavioral factor affecting savings and investment decisions.
• 401(k) savings behavior is influenced by default settings and status quo bias. Automatic enrollment significantly increases participation rates.
• Company stock allocations in 401(k) plans remain high despite risks, often due to automatic investment practices.
• Active decision enrollment systems improve savings participation and lead to more rational investment choices.

NBER Structure and Funding

• The NBER is a private, nonprofit research organization established in 1920.
• It is led by Martin Feldstein as President and CEO.
• The Board of Directors includes prominent economists from various universities and organizations.
• The NBER relies on funding from individuals, corporations, and private foundations to maintain independence and flexibility in research.

Conclusion

The Fall 2005 issue of the NBER Reporter underscores the interdisciplinary nature of the DAE program and the relevance of historical analysis to contemporary economic issues. It highlights the importance of institutional changes, behavioral economics, and financial policy in shaping economic outcomes. The NBER continues to provide valuable insights through its research, publications, and data services.