期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-summer05_64页_1mb

NBER Reporter Summary - Summer 2005

Core Content

The NBER Reporter for Summer 2005 provides an overview of the Conference on Research in Income and Wealth (CRIW), highlighting its role in advancing economic measurement and its historical significance in the development of the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA). It also outlines various research summaries and initiatives related to health insurance, productivity, and economic accounting, emphasizing the challenges and innovations in measuring economic activity in the modern economy.

Main Topics and Research Summaries

1. CRIW Overview

• Founding: Established in 1936, the CRIW was instrumental in the conceptual development of the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts.
• Structure: It operates as a separate entity within the NBER, with its own membership, steering committee, and funding from government agencies such as the Bureau of the Census, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Statistics Canada.
• Membership: Approximately 300 members, with considerable overlap with the NBER's broader community.
• Conferences and Publications: Hosts annual conferences and publishes proceedings in the Studies in Income and Wealth series (nearly 70 volumes). Recent topics include:
  • New Goods and Services
  • Capital Measurement
  • National Accounts Architecture
  • Service Sector Output
  • Medical Care Output and Productivity
  • Scanner Data and Price Indexes

2. Challenges in Economic Measurement

• New Goods and Services: The introduction of new technologies like personal computers, the internet, and cell phones has created a disconnect between macroeconomic statistics and everyday economic experiences. This issue is discussed in the CRIW conference The Economics of New Goods, where the hedonic price model is highlighted as a method to account for quality changes in goods.
• Intangible Capital: The measurement of intangible capital, such as R&D, software, and human capital, is a significant challenge. These assets contribute significantly to business investment but are often excluded from standard NIPA measures.
• Service Sector Output: The service sector has grown from 36% to 56% of GDP since the 1940s, yet its output remains difficult to measure. This has led to debates about productivity slowdowns and the need for better accounting methods.

Key Research Insights

1. Private Health Insurance and Risk Pooling

• Risk Pooling: Premiums in both group and individual insurance markets pool risk to a large extent, even though they do not fully reflect the actual risk levels of individuals.
• Guaranteed Renewability: This feature allows individuals to maintain coverage even if their health status changes, reducing the risk of adverse selection and high premiums.
• Empirical Evidence: Studies show that guaranteed renewability is effective in practice, with minimal adverse effects. However, some insurers may attempt to avoid covering high-risk individuals, though this is rare.

2. Theoretical and Empirical Findings

• Theoretical Model: A model with guaranteed renewability predicts that risk pooling is consistent with competitive insurance markets.
• Premium Risk Relationship: Premiums paid by individuals are not proportional to their risk, and younger individuals pay less due to lower health risks.
• Regulation Effects: State regulations on community rating and risk rating have minimal impact on the overall risk pooling, as guaranteed renewability already provides substantial protection.

3. Group Insurance Dynamics

• Employment-Based Insurance: Employees pay for health insurance through lower wages, with the incidence of health benefits on wages being a well-supported concept.
• Adverse Selection: Employers may face adverse selection when offering multiple insurance plans. However, strategies like high deductible plans with spending accounts can reduce this risk.
• Unionized Workers: These workers tend to prefer group insurance over individual plans, selecting more comprehensive coverage with fewer restrictions.

Broader Implications

• The CRIW continues to be a central forum for addressing evolving economic measurement challenges, particularly in the context of technological change, globalization, and the service sector.
• The NBER remains committed to independent research and the development of more accurate economic indicators.
• The free email service for government data releases is a key initiative to improve accessibility to economic information.

Conclusion

The CRIW has played a crucial role in shaping economic measurement practices in the U.S. and continues to address pressing issues such as the measurement of new goods, intangible capital, and service sector output. Its work highlights the importance of hedonic pricing, capital accounting, and risk pooling in health insurance. The findings suggest that while there are challenges in accurately measuring economic activity, the current systems and policies provide a reasonable level of protection and efficiency.