期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-Summer1990_44页_651kb

NBER Reporter Summary - Summer 1990

Core Content

The NBER Reporter for Summer 1990 highlights the Program in Taxation, focusing on the impact of tax reforms during the 1980s on household and corporate behavior, international taxation, state and local public finance, fiscal policy and national saving, and housing markets. It also touches on broader research areas such as labor market policies and tax compliance.

Main Tax Policy Reforms and Their Impacts

Taxation and Household Behavior

• The 1986 Tax Reform Act (TRA86) led to significant changes in the tax code, including the reduction of top marginal tax rates from 70% to 33% and changes in capital gains taxation.
• IRAs were found to encourage saving, though the complexity of TRA86 makes it difficult to assess its overall impact on saving.
• Charitable giving has seen a decline in gifts of appreciated property, but overall giving has remained relatively stable.
• Tax compliance is influenced by marginal tax rates and audit rates. Lower marginal tax rates are associated with reduced noncompliance.

Taxes and Corporate Behavior

• The fluid tax environment of the 1980s prompted research on time-varying tax policies and their impact on investment decisions.
• Partnership vs. corporate organization incentives were studied, with evidence that corporate tax reforms can influence the choice of organizational form.
• Leverage strategies allow corporations to avoid corporate taxes and face partnership-like taxation.
• Intangible capital (e.g., R&D) is affected by tax distortions, and the 1986 Act increased these distortions by raising effective tax rates on physical assets.
• Corporate investment is influenced not only by marginal tax rates but also by average tax rates, which affect cash flow.

International Taxation

• The integration of global capital markets and the rise of multinational corporations led to research on international tax policy.
• Deferred repatriation of dividends is a key mechanism for tax avoidance.
• Transfer pricing is an area of focus, with implications for tax efficiency.
• Tax policy in the U.S. can influence foreign investment. Raising corporate tax burdens may encourage investment from worldwide taxation countries.
• Withholding taxes on interest payments to foreigners were found to have a strong impact on corporate behavior, but their effect on domestic revenue was minimal.

State and Local Public Finance

• Federal budget pressures have shifted fiscal responsibilities to state and local governments.
• Tax incentives may not always be profitable for states, despite encouraging new firm location.
• Sales tax deductibility has been linked to state spending, with its elimination in 1986 potentially reducing state budgets.
• Federal legislation such as the Food Stamp program has influenced state behavior in ways not typically considered in policy discussions.

Fiscal Policy and National Saving

• National saving is influenced by tax timing and demographic changes, such as the aging baby-boom generation.
• Private saving in the U.S. is expected to increase in the next decade based on current age-specific saving rates.
• Institutional differences in housing finance and taxation between the U.S. and Japan account for one-third of the saving rate differential.
• Japanese tax reforms have raised the effective tax rate on corporate capital, affecting investment and economic growth.

Taxes and Housing Markets

• The 1986 Tax Reform Act significantly altered housing tax policies, affecting owner-occupied and rental housing markets.
• Real rents are expected to increase in the long run due to tax changes, though magnitude of this effect remains uncertain.
• Differential taxation of housing and other assets has efficiency costs, as highlighted by Lawrence H. Goulder.

Other Research Areas

• Taxation and economic growth are explored through stochastic capital income tax models, which can generate cyclical fluctuations and changes in trend growth.
• Government compensation for individuals affected by its actions (e.g., infrastructure or tax changes) is analyzed for its efficiency consequences.
• Moral hazard in social insurance is shown to distort market efficiency, particularly in insurance-based systems.
• Compulsory schooling laws have a significant impact on educational attainment and labor market outcomes, with early-year births receiving less schooling due to age-based enrollment policies.
• Workers' compensation affects safety behavior, injury reporting, and workplace conditions, with benefit increases leading to higher participation and longer injury durations.

NBER and Its Leadership

• The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is a nonprofit research organization dedicated to quantitative economic analysis.
• The current leadership includes:
  • Chairman: George T. Conklin, Jr.
  • Vice Chairman: Paul W. McCracken
  • Treasurer: Charles A. Walworth
  • President and CEO: Martin Feldstein
  • Executive Director: Geoffrey Carliner
  • Director of Finance and Administration: Sam Parker
• Directors at Large and by University Appointment include prominent economists from leading institutions.
• Directors by Appointment of Other Organizations include members from various economic and financial associations.

Research Summary: Government and the Labor Market

Education

• Compulsory schooling laws have a substantial impact on educational attainment and earnings.
• School quality (e.g., class size, teacher pay, term length) significantly affects economic returns to education.
• Early-year births are more likely to complete fewer years of schooling due to age-based enrollment policies.
• Estimated returns to education are close to conventional estimates, with an additional year of high school increasing earnings by about 7%.

Social Insurance

• Workers' compensation affects safety behavior, injury reporting, and workplace conditions.
• Benefit increases are associated with higher participation and longer injury durations.
• Self-insured firms may influence employee return to work due to full marginal cost bearing.
• Social Security research focuses on the effect of benefits on male labor supply, noting a decline since World War II.

Conclusion

The NBER Program in Taxation has been instrumental in analyzing the effects of tax policy on household and corporate behavior, international investment, state and local finance, and national saving. The 1986 Tax Reform Act has provided a unique experimental setting, prompting new insights into tax incentives, compliance, and market distortions. Researchers also highlight the importance of tax policy in shaping economic outcomes, investment decisions, and labor market dynamics.