期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-Spring1992_56页_794kb

MBER Reporter Summary: The Development of the American Economy

Core Content Overview

The NBER Program on the Development of the American Economy focuses on understanding the long-term evolution of the U.S. economy and its implications for current policy issues. The program spans multiple areas including labor and population studies, industrial organization, financial and macroeconomic history, and political economy. Two main research areas are highlighted: financial history and historical political economy.

Financial History Research

Key Researchers and Projects

• Charles W. Calomiris, J. Bradford De Long, Michael D. Bordo, Barry J. Eichengreen, Claudia Goldin, Naomi Lamoreaux, Hugh Rockoff, Christina D. Romer, Richard E. Sylla, and Eugene N. White are leading the financial history research.
• Sylla, Wilson, and Jones have compiled monthly financial data from the 1830s to the present, revealing that stock and bond markets were less volatile before 1914 than after, challenging the effectiveness of post-1914 regulations.
• Romer shows that capital and gold flight from Europe in the late 1930s led to an expansion in the U.S. money supply, contributing to the recovery from the Great Depression.
• Rockoff and Bodenhorn demonstrate that regional interest rates were highly integrated before 1860, with disparities in the 1870s attributed to the Civil War and state laws that created "free banking" from 1838 to 1863.
• Calomiris and Gorton examine the origins of banking panics under the National Banking Act of 1864, concluding that branch banking could have mitigated panics. They also suggest that open market operations may not be sufficient to resolve banking panics without discount lending.
• Lamoreaux studies the relationship between New England banks and firms, showing that investment banks remained closely tied to firm governance, while commercial banks became less involved.
• A new project analyzes individual-level savings data from the Philadelphia Savings Fund Society, revealing that precautionary savings motives were rare, and female servants were the only group engaging in life-cycle saving.

Historical Political Economy Research

New Initiative and Focus

• The DAE has launched a new initiative in historical political economy, aiming to study the origins, development, and impact of government policies and actions in the economy.
• The initiative emphasizes a dynamic, long-term perspective to understand the endogeneity of government regulation through case studies.

Key Study: Federal Meat Inspection and Antitrust

• Gary D. Libecap’s study on the origins of federal meat inspection and antitrust laws highlights how small meat packers and farmers drove political pressure for these laws.
• The Beef Trust, formed by four major firms, dominated the meat market through refrigeration technology and economies of scale.
• The Meat Inspection Act of 1891 and the Sherman Act of 1890 were both responses to public concerns about the quality of American beef.
• The Sherman Act was supported by competitors of the Beef Trust, who inadvertently harmed the reputation of refrigerated beef in the process.

Upcoming Events

• A preconference in October 1992 and an NBER conference in May 1993 will focus on regulation and the American economy.
• Topics will include early 20th-century immigration restrictions, workers' compensation, bank deposit insurance, transportation and utility regulation, and New Deal agricultural policies.

Research Summaries

Gender and Economic Outcomes

• Francine D. Blau examines gender differences in economic outcomes, including occupational distribution, earnings, and social consequences.
• Over the 1970s and 1980s, white and black women narrowed the earnings gap relative to men, with white women making more rapid progress in the 1980s.
• The index of occupational segregation fell from 67% to 57% between 1970 and 1987, indicating greater integration in the labor market.

Determinants of the Gender Earnings Gap

• Two traditional explanations for the gender earnings gap are labor market discrimination and differences in human capital.
• Wage structure is identified as a new and important factor in explaining international differences in the gender earnings gap.
• The U.S. has higher wage inequality than Scandinavian countries and Australia, which is attributed to wage-setting institutions and educational disparities.

Understanding the Trends

• The gender earnings gap began to close in the 1980s due to increased female labor force participation and changes in industry wage coefficients favoring women.
• The increase in female experience levels and reduced occupational segregation contributed to narrowing the gap.
• The first year of a child's life is the most critical period for maternal employment effects on cognitive development, with standardized test scores showing no significant net effect.

Future Outlook

• The trend of increasing female labor force participation is expected to continue, leading to more continuous employment and higher representation of women in the workforce.
• Research suggests that maternal employment has little impact on child development, with negative effects concentrated in the first year of life.

Key Information

• The NBER is a private, nonprofit research organization established in 1920.
• The Program Report highlights the breadth of research within the DAE, focusing on financial history and political economy.
• Data collection and longitudinal studies are central to the financial history group.
• Policy implications are a key focus, particularly in understanding the effectiveness of regulations and the role of government in shaping the economy.