期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-Spring1995_1_36页_2mb

MBER Reporter Summary - Spring 1995

Core Content Overview

The NBER Reporter for Spring 1995 highlights key research and program updates from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), focusing on economic development, monetary policy, labor markets, education, and social insurance. The NBER, a private, nonprofit research organization founded in 1920, is dedicated to the objective quantitative analysis of the American economy.

Main Research Themes

1. Development of the American Economy

• The Program on the Development of the American Economy (DAE) explores labor and population dynamics, industrial organization, financial and macroeconomic history, and political economy.
• The central mission is to inform current policy debates through historical data and analysis.
• Jeffrey G. Williamson and others investigate the convergence of real wages among OECD countries from 1850 to 1914, and again from 1950 to 1995, with a notable period of stagnation between 1914 and 1950.
• Mass migrations and commodity trade played significant roles in wage convergence, as did factor price convergence.
• Robert A. Margo and Joshua L. Rosenbloom examine labor market integration in the U.S., finding that while regional convergence occurred, the North and South remained largely separate until 1920.
• Dora L. Costa investigates the increase in retirement rates in the 20th century, attributing it to increased wealth rather than health or agricultural decline.
• Robert W. Fogel links improved environmental conditions to increased longevity, suggesting that early life conditions have a major impact on health and labor force participation.

2. Education and Labor Force

• Claudia Goldin emphasizes the role of education in economic growth and labor market changes.
• She notes that 70% of the increase in schooling years occurred at the secondary level.
• Goldin's research shows that the rise of American high schools from 1900 to 1960 led to declines in the wage premium for white-collar jobs and increased labor productivity in manufacturing.
• The impact of education on women's labor force participation is also explored, showing a shift in demographic patterns over time.

3. Social Insurance

• Workers' compensation (WC) is highlighted as the first social insurance program in the U.S.
• Price V. Fishback and Shawn E. Kantor analyze the formation of a coalition supporting WC, noting that private insurance was limited and workers effectively traded wages for benefits.
• The impact of WC on wage levels and labor market outcomes is discussed, with nonunion workers experiencing the largest wage declines.
• The bargaining process among economic factions shaped state-specific WC policies.

Key Findings

• Convergence of real wages in the U.S. and other OECD countries was influenced by factor flows, commodity trade, and mass migrations.
• Regional labor market integration occurred in the U.S., but North and South remained separate until the early 20th century.
• Increased education significantly affected wage structures, labor productivity, and demographic outcomes for women.
• Workers' compensation emerged due to limited private insurance and wage trade-offs, with nonunion workers gaining the most.
• Monetary policy rules that target nominal GDP or growth rate paths are more stable and effective than price level targets or interest rate rules, especially in long-term simulations.

Conclusion

The Spring 1995 issue of the NBER Reporter underscores the importance of historical data in understanding current economic issues. It emphasizes the interplay of labor, education, and policy in shaping economic development and monetary policy frameworks that can stabilize growth and inflation effectively.