20230426-太平洋-妙可蓝多-600882.SH-妙可蓝多_业绩环比改善_期待新品放量_4页_860kb

Summary

Key Events and Performance: Moly-Goal (600882) reported Q1 2023 financial results, with net revenue of RMB 10.2 billion (YoY -205%, QoQ +22%), indicating a sales recovery compared to prior periods. Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 242.02 million (YoY -671%, EBITDA RMB 58.69 million, YoY -915%), but profit margins improved on a quarterly basis due to cost pressures and product mix.

Performance Analysis: Revenue declined due to high sales growth in previous quarters, while net profit showed环比 improvement. Profitability suffered from reduced gross margin (32.7%, YoY -61ppt) and higher raw material costs, partly offset by lower input prices in Q1. The company maintained stable distributor numbers but faced challenges in specific business segments like cheese and liquid milk.

Outlook for 2023: Moly-Goal expects sustained growth in cheese business, with new products such as organic snacks and convenience foods set to drive revenue increases. Cost management and operational efficiency aim to enhance profitability, supported by stable expense ratios. Full-year revenue growth is projected at 30%, with net profit margins showing strong improvement.

Profitability Forecast: Forecasts project 2023-2025 revenue CAGR of 26%, with net profit jump over 100%. The low margin improvement and industry leadership position suggest potential for share expansion in the high-growth dairy sector.

Risks Note: Possible impacts from lingering COVID-19 risks, fluctuations in raw materials, intensified competition, and operational challenges.

Valuation and Recommendation: Pacific Securities maintains an "Buy" rating with a RMB 34 target price, based on 35x PE in 2024.