20231211-中泰期货-铝品种周度报告_强back支撑沪铝价格企稳_氧化铝期货受仓单压制_9页_1mb

Summary of Aluminum Weekly Report

Macro Overview

• Domestic: China's November exports increased by 17%, imports by 6%, with overall trade growth of 12%, indicating stronger recovery.
• Overseas: US non-farm employment data was robust, strengthening the dollar and affecting global markets; this contrasts with China's positive but uncertain outlook amid economic concerns.

Market Review

• Aluminum prices oscillated downward, with enhanced "back" structure due to low inventory drawdown supporting short-term prices, but suppressed by LME aluminum and import pressures widening the back spread.
• Spot markets were weak, with significant price discounts in regions like Foshan, while demand in areas such as Gongyi remained strong; overall trading volumes and positions showed cautious sentiment.

Aluminum Analysis and Suggestion

• Import window is open, leading to increased overseas aluminum shipments and waning demand, but inventory reduction provides solid support from spot prices; short-term advice is to hold and monitor.

Aluminum Oxide Analysis and Suggestion

• Oxide prices faced pressure from limited liquidity when moving from warehouse storage, with no large surpluses disrupting the market; however, production instability and high costs offer support, encouraging moderate range-based trading strategies.

Risk Factors

• Overall demand is expected to decline, potentially impacting prices; mitigate by watching macroeconomic shifts and inventory developments.