20230419-国联证券-3月财政数据点评_财政收入有所好转_基建支出发力明显_6页_391kb

Summary from Report

• Core View: March fiscal data shows improved revenue due to economic recovery and low base comparisons. Infrastructure spending is increasing, while pandemic-related expenditures are declining. Fiscal deficits are significant, and real estate indicators suggest potential recovery.

• Fiscal Revenue: Revenue increased 55% YoY (from -6.7% in February), mainly from VAT boosted by deferred payments. Corporate tax dropped due to timing factors like non-peak collection. Real estate taxes rose, indicating sales and investment repair.

• Fiscal Expenditure: Growth slowed to 65% YoY (down 0.5% from previous); reductions in health spending reflect policy changes, while infrastructure-related sectors saw strong increases. Transportation remained steady due to prior highs.

• Government Funds and Bonds: Government funds income declined 17.5% YoY (narrowing trend), aligning with real estate recovery. Special bonds issuance reached over 13 trillion yuan, a high percentage of annual targets.

• Risks: Economic recovery may fall short, real estate repair could be slow, and policy implementation risks exist.