2022-05-26-世界银行-碳定价发展现状与未来趋势（英）_74页_16mb

Summary of Carbon Pricing and Climate Action Trends (2022)

The global push to combat climate change is gathering steam, yet ambitious carbon pricing remains insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement's goals. Despite record-high prices in some jurisdictions—driven by policy reforms, anticipated changes, speculation, and energy market fluctuations—carbon prices remain too low to limit global warming to 1.5°C. As of April 1, 2022, carbon pricing covers only 23% of global GHG emissions, a minor increase from prior years.

Carbon credit markets are experiencing rapid growth, largely fueled by corporate net-zero commitments. Demand from international compliance markets remains limited, but voluntary markets are thriving, with record issuance volumes and prices. Market dynamics are being shaped by new technologies, such as blockchain, which offer both opportunities for efficiency and risks related to transparency and quality assurance.

Cross-border approaches, including border carbon adjustments (BCAs) and climate clubs, are gaining traction. The EU's proposed Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is a significant step, aiming to address carbon leakage while raising questions about equity and global cooperation. Similarly, the U.S.-EU Carbon-Based Sectoral Arrangement on Steel and Aluminum Trade reflects efforts to align decarbonization across regions.

Volatility in carbon prices, exacerbated by geopolitical events like the Ukraine invasion, poses challenges to policy implementation. Many jurisdictions are navigating the delicate balance between ambition and political feasibility. Just transition policies are being integrated to ensure carbon pricing does not disproportionately burden vulnerable populations or economies, a critical factor in maintaining public support.

Revenue generation from carbon pricing has sharply increased in some systems, offering opportunities for sustainable development and fiscal reforms. For instance, ETS revenues surpassing carbon tax revenues in places like the EU and California demonstrate the potential economic impact of pricing carbon.

While carbon pricing provides a crucial tool for incentivizing decarbonization, its full potential is hindered by gaps in coverage, price levels, and governance frameworks. Ensuring its effectiveness and equitable implementation will be key to meeting climate goals and fostering a just transition.