2026年碳定价发展现状与未来趋势报告_76页_13mb

2026 State and Trends of Carbon Pricing Summary

Core Content

The 2026 State and Trends of Carbon Pricing report provides an overview of the global development and implementation of carbon pricing mechanisms and carbon credit markets. It outlines the evolution of these instruments over the past decade, emphasizing their role in climate mitigation, economic development, and international trade.

Main Points

Carbon Pricing

• Global Coverage: As of 2026, direct carbon pricing covers 29% of global GHG emissions through 87 implemented policies.
• Emissions Trading Systems (ETSs):
  • Cover over 24% of global GHG emissions, up from 8% in 2016.
  • ETSs have seen significant expansion, with the number of implemented policies more than doubling since 2016.
• Carbon Taxes:
  • Cover around 4–5% of global GHG emissions, with relatively stable rates.
  • However, some jurisdictions, such as Singapore, have introduced significant increases in 2026.
• Future Projections:
  • If current policies under development are fully implemented by 2030, nearly 1/3 of global GHG emissions could be covered by carbon pricing.
• EU CBAM:
  • Although covering less than 0.5% of global emissions, its formal adoption has increased interest in border carbon adjustments.
• Carbon Price Trends:
  • Direct carbon prices have increased by seven percent since April 2025.
  • The average price has doubled from US$10/tCO₂e in 2016 to nearly US$21/tCO₂e in 2026.
  • ETS price volatility has been significant in 2026, especially due to global commodity market disruptions.
• Government Revenues:
  • Annual revenues from ETSs and carbon taxes reached US$107 billion in 2025, up from under US$30 billion in 2016.
  • Most revenues come from developed economies, while developing economies have lower carbon prices and limited use of allowance auctions.

Carbon Credit Markets

• Credit Issuances:
  • Increased by 8% from 2024 to 2025, still 20% below 2022 levels but over 80% above 2016 levels.
  • The number of governmental crediting mechanisms rose from 24 to 34 over the past decade.
• Credit Retirements:
  • Declined by more than 10% from 2024 to 2025.
  • Voluntary use dominates retirements, accounting for over 80% of total retirements in 2025.
• Credit Prices:
  • Prices across project types declined slightly in 2025.
  • CORSIA-approved credits commanded a price premium, trading between US$15–22/tCO₂e, compared to US$1–14/tCO₂e for most other credits.
  • There is a correlation between project ratings and market prices, with reforestation projects seeing an 87% price increase per rating band.
• PACM and CORSIA:
  • The Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism (PACM) started in 2026, with the first credits issued to a clean cookstoves project in Myanmar.
  • The CORSIA system, introduced in 2016, entered its first phase in 2024, with airlines required to comply in 2028.

Key Information

• Global Trends:
  • Carbon pricing has expanded significantly, with more diverse approaches.
  • The EU CBAM marks a shift toward international trade as a domain for carbon pricing.
  • Additional countries, including Brazil and Türkiye, are preparing carbon pricing policies.
• Market Developments:
  • Voluntary demand for carbon credits has driven market growth.
  • The traded value of carbon credits reached US$535 million in 2024, with US$12–16 billion in capital committed for future projects in 2025.
• Market Dynamics:
  • Nature-based projects (e.g., reforestation, conservation) are increasingly favored and command higher prices.
  • Project integrity and third-party ratings are becoming important factors in market demand.
• New Mechanisms:
  • The Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF) is a noncarbon, results-based financing mechanism aimed at forest conservation in tropical countries.
  • It is not an alternative to REDD+, but rather a complementary mechanism to support jurisdictional REDD+.

Conclusion

The 2026 report highlights the growing importance of carbon pricing and credit markets in global climate policy. While direct carbon pricing is expanding and becoming more sophisticated, indirect mechanisms such as fossil fuel subsidies still dominate in terms of financial scale. The report underscores the need for policy coherence, market integrity, and strategic investment in both domestic and international carbon pricing frameworks. It also emphasizes the role of international cooperation and market innovation in advancing climate goals.