世界银行-2025年碳定价的现状与趋势（英）_86页_16mb

State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2025 Summary

Key Findings

Carbon Pricing Coverage and Revenue

• Global CO₂ coverage reached around 28% through direct carbon pricing instruments (up from 24%).
• China's expansion of its ETS to cover cement, steel, and aluminum significantly increased global coverage.
• Average carbon prices reached approximately USD 19 per tCO₂e in 2025, nearly tripling since 2015 (in real terms).
• Direct carbon pricing instruments now account for over USD 100 billion in annual revenue.

Carbon Credit Markets

• Global carbon credit retirements reached nearly 1 billion tons, driven primarily by compliance demand.
• Nature-based removal credits maintained price premiums, with removal projects averaging USD 15.5 per tCO₂e.
• Over two-thirds of unretired credits were from pre-2022 vintage projects, reflecting challenges in credit liquidity.

Notable Developments

• International agreements clarify carbon credit rules under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, following COP29 decisions.
• Countries expanded governmental crediting mechanisms, establishing frameworks for carbon credit generation and use.
• Corporates increasingly adopt internal carbon pricing, with shadow carbon prices becoming the dominant internal tool.

Political Economy Considerations

• Carbon pricing interactions with border carbon adjustments are increasing as countries navigate global trade dynamics.
• Carbon revenues serve multiple purposes, including environmental investments, infrastructure funding, and social compensation.
• Revenue use includes low-carbon development projects, addressing social impacts, and supporting vulnerable groups.

Future Outlook

• Emerging market countries continue to explore carbon pricing frameworks and mechanisms.
• International carbon market infrastructure is being strengthened following COP29 agreements.
• Differentiation in credit quality and pricing continues to shape market dynamics and investment decisions.