_2025年碳定价发展现状与未来趋势_（英）_86页_16mb

Carbon Pricing Trends and Developments (2025) [Summary]

As of April 1, 2025, carbon pricing now covers ~28% of global GHG emissions, up from ~5% in 2005. A total of 80 instruments (37 ETSs, 43 carbon taxes) are operational, reflecting substantial global expansion. Most large middle-income economies (e.g., Brazil, China, India, Chile) have implemented or are advancing carbon pricing frameworks, with carbon revenues totaling over USD 100 billion in 2024 (slight decline from 2023). Revenue is increasingly earmarked for environmental, infrastructure, and development projects.

Carbon Tax and ETS Developments:

• China expanded its National ETS to cover cement, steel, and aluminum, increasing global coverage from ~24% to ~28% of emissions.
• Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Türkiye made significant strides in designing or implementing ETSs.
• EU, UK, and California maintained relatively low emission prices, while countries like Canada and Mexico introduced new carbon taxes.
• Rate-based ETSs (flexible approaches) are gaining traction in Asia-Pacific.
• Border carbon adjustments (BCAs) are being adopted in several economies (e.g., UK CBAM protocol) to address carbon leakage.

Carbon Credit Markets:

• Global compliance retirements surged 15% in 2024, driven by demand from ETSs like California and Québec.
• Forestry and nature-based removal projects (e.g., REDD+) continue to command price premiums (~USD 15.5/tCO₂eq) due to buyer interest in offsets for removal credits.
• Voluntary market demand shifted toward clean cooking and renewable projects, while issuance volumes declined due to methodology concerns (e.g., ICVCM’s rejection of renewable energy credits).
• The UN-administered Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism (PACM) is operationalizing, with supply expected from transitioning CDM projects and new PACM registrations.

Methodology and Definitions:
The report uses a comprehensive methodology to measure carbon price coverage, revenues, and credit volumes, reconciling data from governmental, independent, and UN-administered mechanisms. Key terms are defined in the annex, including direct vs. indirect carbon pricing and crediting mechanisms.

Key Conclusions:
Carbon pricing continues to expand its role in mitigating emissions, raising revenues, and channeling investment toward decarbonization. However, challenges remain in ensuring equitable revenue allocation, improving market integrity, and scaling up nature-based solutions. The evolving global policy landscape underscores the need for coordinated actions to accelerate carbon pricing deployment.