2025-06-15-世界银行-2025年碳定价发展现状与未来趋势（英）_87页_16mb

State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2025: Summary

Introduction

• Governments face fiscal pressures amid economic uncertainty, making carbon pricing a pragmatic tool for climate mitigation, revenue generation, and development outcomes.
• Carbon pricing continues to expand globally, covering 28% of global GHG emissions and representing nearly two-thirds of global GDP through 80 instruments (37 ETSs and 43 carbon taxes).

Carbon Taxes and Emissions Trading Systems

• Coverage Expansion: Direct carbon pricing now covers 28% of global emissions (up from 24% in 2023), driven by China’s ETS expansion to include cement, steel, and aluminum.
• Revenue Trends: 2024 revenues declined slightly (~USD 100 billion) due to lower prices in major ETSs, but over two-thirds of global GDP is subject to carbon pricing.
• Design Elements: Growing interest in rate-based ETSs for flexibility; price stability mechanisms (e.g., stability reserves) are increasingly adopted.
• Regional Developments:
  • Asia-Pacific: Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Türkiye advancing domestic carbon pricing.
  • Europe: EU ETS and UK ETS remaining key players, with Portugal reinstating its carbon tax.
  • Latin America: Strongest carbon prices in Chile, Mexico, and Uruguay.

Carbon Crediting Markets and Mechanisms

• Credit Retirements: 2024 saw a 15% increase in global retirements (1.5 billion tCO₂e), driven by compliance demand, particularly in California and Québec.
• Supply and Prices: Carbon credit markets experienced divergence, with nature-based removal credits commanding price premiums (USD 15.50/tCO₂e). Renewables and avoided deforestation saw price declines post-ICVCM decisions.
• Market Dynamics: Greater overlap between compliance and voluntary markets; CORSIA demand for credits is expected to escalate.

Annex Highlights

• Carbon Pricing Instruments: Summarizes 80 implemented carbon pricing schemes, detailing coverage, rates, and revenue generation.
• Definitions: Clarifies terminology for direct vs. indirect carbon pricing and crediting mechanisms.

Conclusion

• Carbon pricing is maturing globally, with evolving designs to balance environmental ambition with economic and political feasibility. Future growth will depend on institutional capacity, revenue recycling, and integration with carbon crediting to mobilize private investment.