> **来源：[研报客](https://pc.yanbaoke.cn)** # Summary of "State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2026" ## Core Content The *State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2026* report provides an overview of the evolution and current state of carbon pricing mechanisms and carbon credit markets globally. It highlights the expansion of carbon pricing policies, their impact on government revenues, and the role of carbon credits in supporting climate mitigation and broader development goals. ## Main Points ### Carbon Pricing - **Global Expansion**: Direct carbon pricing has significantly expanded over the past decade, with 87 implemented policies covering 29% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2026. - **Emissions Trading Systems (ETSs)**: - ETS coverage of GHG emissions has tripled since 2016, rising from 8% to over 24%. - By 2030, if current policies under development are fully implemented, nearly one-third of global GHG emissions could be covered by carbon pricing. - **Carbon Taxes**: - Carbon tax coverage has remained relatively stable at around 4–5%. - In 2026, some jurisdictions, such as Singapore, saw significant increases in carbon tax rates. - **Carbon Price Trends**: - Average carbon prices have nearly doubled from US\$10/tCO₂e in 2016 to US\$21/tCO₂e in 2026. - Carbon prices in ETSs have experienced significant volatility in 2026, particularly due to global commodity market disruptions. - **Government Revenues**: - Annual government revenues from ETSs and carbon taxes in 2025 reached over US\$107 billion, up from under US\$30 billion in 2016. - Most revenues come from developed economies, with lower prices and limited allowance auctions in developing and middle-income countries. ### Carbon Credit Markets - **Credit Issuances**: - Overall carbon credit issuances rose by 8% from 2024 to 2025, still 20% below 2022 levels but more than 80% above 2016 levels. - Governmental crediting mechanisms increased from 24 to 34 over the past decade. - **Retirements**: - Carbon credit retirements declined by more than 10% from 2024 to 2025, largely due to compliance credits in California returning to 2023 levels. - Voluntary credits dominate retirements, accounting for over 80% of total retirements in 2025. - **Credit Prices**: - Carbon credit prices across project types declined slightly in 2025, but credits eligible for international compliance or with high ratings continue to command a price premium. - CORSIA-approved credits traded between US\$15/tCO₂e and US\$22/tCO₂e in 2025, significantly higher than most other credit types. - A strong correlation exists between project ratings and market prices, as seen in reforestation projects. ## Key Trends - **Global Carbon Pricing Coverage**: By 2026, nearly 30% of global GHG emissions are covered by direct carbon pricing mechanisms. - **Emerging Markets**: New ETSs and carbon taxes have been implemented in countries such as India, Japan, Mauritania, Serbia, and Viet Nam. - **International Trade**: The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is a new development that extends carbon pricing to international trade. - **Voluntary Demand**: Voluntary carbon credit markets have grown, with a significant portion of capital committed to nature-based projects. - **Nature-Based Projects**: Nature-based activities such as conservation and reforestation are increasingly favored in the carbon credit market. - **TFFF**: The Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF), a noncarbon, results-based financing mechanism, is being proposed to support forest conservation in tropical countries. ## Key Information - **Carbon Pricing Revenues**: ETS and carbon tax revenues in 2025 exceeded US\$107 billion, with a steady increase since 2021. - **Credit Market Value**: The estimated annual value of traded carbon credits in 2024 was US\$535 million. - **Capital Commitment**: Capital committed to future carbon credit projects in 2025 is estimated at US\$12–16 billion. - **Fossil Fuel Subsidies**: Indirect carbon pricing, such as fossil fuel subsidies, accounted for over US\$900 billion in 2024, significantly higher than direct carbon pricing mechanisms. - **Policy Development**: The report emphasizes the importance of tailoring carbon pricing policies to local institutional capacities and development priorities. ## Conclusion The report underscores the importance of carbon pricing as a key policy tool for achieving climate goals and supporting sustainable development. It also highlights the growing role of carbon credit markets in mobilizing finance for emission reduction and removal projects, especially in developing countries. The continued expansion and diversification of carbon pricing mechanisms, along with the increasing use of carbon credits, reflect a global shift towards more integrated and effective climate strategies.