2023-10-01-莱坊-Sydney_Residential_Insight_Q3_2023_4页_886kb

Sydney Residential Market Summary - Q3 2023

Core Content Overview

This document provides a quarterly analysis of the residential market in Greater Sydney, focusing on sales, prices, and rental performance as of June 2023. It also includes forecasts for the next few years, highlighting key drivers such as economic growth, unemployment rate, and cash rate target.

Sales Performance

• Sales Volume:
  • Q2 2023 (June quarter): Increased by 15% to 20,404 homes sold.
  • Annual Sales Volume (2022-2023): 25% lower than the previous year.
• Days on Market:
  • June 2023: Average of 69 days.
  • One quarter ago: 75 days.
• Auction Clearance Rate:
  • Week ending 10 September 2023: 67.0% (from 898 auctions).
  • Prior week: 68.2% (from 913 auctions).
  • Same week last year: 60.0% (from 698 auctions).

Price Performance

• Median Residential Value (June 2023): $1,203,000.
• Annual Price Change (June 2022–June 2023): -0.1%.
• Quarterly Price Increase (June 2023): 4.5%.
• Forecasted Price Changes:
  • End of 2023: 4% increase.
  • 2024: 5% increase.
  • 2025: 6% increase.

Rental Market Performance

• Total Residential Vacancy Rate (June 2023): 1.5%.
  • Inner Suburbs: 2.1%.
  • Middle Suburbs: 1.5%.
  • Outer Suburbs: 1.5%.
• Gross Rental Yields (Q2 2023): Increased by 13 bps to 3.74%.
• Weekly Median Rent (June 2023): $685.
  • Quarterly Increase: 7.0%.
  • Annual Increase: 18.1%.
• Forecasted Rental Changes:
  • End of 2023: 16% increase.
  • 2024: 11% increase.
  • 2025: 8% increase.

New Builds

• Building Approvals (June 2023):
  • Houses: 3,184 units approved, up 8.0% from the previous quarter.
  • Apartments: 7,543 units approved, up 191.1% compared to the previous quarter.

Key Economic and Demographic Indicators

Established Houses

• Median House Value (June 2023): $1,538,000.
• Annual House Value Change (June 2022–June 2023): 0.1%.
• Quarterly House Price Increase (June 2023): 5.3%.
• House Sales Volume (June 2023): Increased by 11.3% to 11,257 houses sold.
• Days on Market (June 2023): 60 days (down from 63 days one quarter ago).
• House Rents:
  • Quarterly Increase: 6.1%.
  • Annual Increase: 12.9%.
  • Weekly Median Rent (June 2023): $700.
  • Gross Rental Yields (Q2 2023): Increased by 8 bps to 3.08%.

Established Apartments

• Median Apartment Value (June 2023): $774,000.
• Annual Apartment Value Change (June 2022–June 2023): -0.7%.
• Quarterly Apartment Price Increase (June 2023): 2.7%.
• Apartment Sales Volume (June 2023): Increased by 19.8% to 9,147 apartments sold.
• Days on Market (June 2023): 80 days (down from 90 days one quarter ago).
• Apartment Rents:
  • Quarterly Increase: 8.1%.
  • Annual Increase: 27.6%.
  • Weekly Median Rent (June 2023): $670.
  • Gross Rental Yields (Q2 2023): Increased by 19 bps to 4.58%.

Greater Sydney Residential Forecast

Source: Oxford Economics for economic indicators; Knight Frank Research for price and rental forecasts.

Conclusion

The Sydney residential market is showing signs of recovery and upward momentum, particularly in the lead-up to the spring selling season. Sales volume has increased, days on market have decreased, and auction clearance rates have improved. Prices for both houses and apartments have shown positive movement in the last quarter, with houses experiencing a stronger price increase. Rents have also risen significantly, with a notable increase in gross rental yields. The market is expected to continue this trend with moderate price and rental growth over the next few years, supported by a stable economic environment and controlled interest rates.