2023-10-01-莱坊-Perth_Residential_Insight_Q3_2023_4页_855kb

报告摘要

Perth Residential Insight Summary (Q3 2023)

Core Content Overview

Knight Frank's Q3 2023 report provides an analysis of the residential sales and rental markets in Greater Perth, highlighting trends, performance metrics, and future forecasts.

Key Market Trends

Residential Rental Vacancy

Vacancy Rate: Remained below 1% at 0.8% in June 2023, continuing a 12-quarter trend of positive rental growth.
Annual Growth: Rents increased by 17.9% over the past year, with a 5.7% rise in the June 2023 quarter.
Gross Rental Yields: Increased by 7 bps to 5.74% in Q2 2023.
Forecast: Rents are expected to rise by 17% by the end of 2023, 11% in 2024, and 9% in 2025.

Residential Sales Performance

Sales Volume: Declined by 21% in the June 2023 quarter to 10,153 homes, with a 13% annual decrease.
Days on Market: Average days on market for residential homes stood at 61 days in June 2023, slightly down from 62 days one quarter prior.
Auction Clearance Rate: Reached 38.5% in the week ending 10 September 2023, compared to 0.0% the previous week and 53.3% in the same period last year.

Residential Price Performance

Median Value: Stood at $617,500 in June 2023, up 4.0% over the year and 1.7% in the past quarter.
Price Forecast: Prices are projected to increase by 3% in 2023, 5% in 2024, and 6% in 2025.

New Builds and Market Dynamics

Building Approvals: In the June 2023 quarter, 2,320 houses and 383 apartments were approved, with a 3.6% increase in house approvals and a 1.8% decrease in apartment approvals compared to the previous quarter.
Established Houses: Median house value reached $690,500, up 5.4% over the year. Despite a decline in sales volume, house prices continued to grow.
Established Apartments: Median apartment value was $356,500, down 4.8% over the year. However, the average days on market decreased by 13 days, indicating improved market efficiency.

Economic and Demographic Context

WA Economic Growth: Annual growth was 5.4% in 2022, with a forecast of 3.5% in 2025.
Unemployment Rate: Stood at 3.5% in June 2023.
Cash Rate Target: Increased to 4.10% in September 2023, with a forecast of 3.4% by 2025.
New Household Loan Commitments: Rose by 6.6% in the June 2023 quarter.
First Home Buyer Commitments: Declined by 9.8% in Q2 2023.
Population Growth: Greater Perth's population grew by 1.5% in 2022 to an estimated 2.2 million, with a forecast of 1.6% annual growth in 2025.

Market Forecast

Category	2023 Forecast	2024 Forecast	2025 Forecast	3-Year Average
Price Performance	3%	5%	6%	5%
Rental Market	17%	11%	9%	12%

Key Drivers of the Market

Indicator	2021	2022	2023f	2024f	2025f	3-Year Average
Economic Growth	5.3%	5.4%	3.0%	2.8%	3.5%	3.1%
Unemployment Rate	5.1%	3.7%	3.7%	4.3%	4.3%	4.1%
Cash Rate Target	0.1%	1.2%	3.8%	4.1%	3.4%	3.8%

Source: Oxford Economics

Contact Information

Michelle Ciesielski – Residential Site Sales
+612 9036 6659
michelle.ciesielski@au.knightfrank.com
Tony Delich – Franchise Partnerships
+618 9225 2528
tony.delich@au.knightfrank.com
Sally Edvardsen – Residential
+612 9036 6845
sally.edvardsen@au.knightfrank.com
Erin van Tuil – Residential
+612 9036 6699
erin.vantuil@au.knightfrank.com
Luke Hayes – Residential Project Sales
+612 9036 66700
luke.hayes@au.knightfrank.com
Alistair Carpenter – Valuations
+612 9036 662
al.carpenter@au.knightfrank.com