2023-10-01-莱坊-Brisbane_Residential_Insight_Q3_2023_4页_868kb

Brisbane Residential Market Summary Q3 2023

Core Content Overview

This document provides an analysis of the residential real estate market in Greater Brisbane for Q3 2023, highlighting trends in sales, prices, rentals, and new builds. It also includes forecasts for the next few years based on economic and financial indicators.

Sales Performance

• Sales Volume:

  • In the June 2023 quarter, residential sales volume decreased by 13% to 11,064 homes, but annual sales volume was 42% higher than the same period in 2022.
  • For houses, sales volume dropped 16.9% to 7,588 in the June 2023 quarter, with an annual decline of 28.2%.
  • For apartments, sales volume fell by 2.3% to 3,476, with an annual decrease of 30.1%.

• Days on Market:

  • The average days on market for residential homes was 53 days in the June 2023 quarter, down from 59 days one quarter earlier.
  • For houses, the average days on market was 53 days, down from 60 days one quarter ago.
  • For apartments, the average days on market was 52 days, down from 58 days one quarter ago.

• Auction Clearance Rate:

  • The auction clearance rate for the week ending 10 September 2023 was 59.8%, slightly lower than the previous week's 60.3%, but significantly higher than the 38.6% recorded in the same week in 2022.

Price Performance

• Median Residential Value:

  • The median residential value in Greater Brisbane at the end of June 2023 was $733,000.
  • Over the year to June 2023, capital values for residential homes decreased by 2.5%, while they rose by 1.2% in the past quarter.

• Houses:

  • Median house value was $823,500 at the end of June 2023.
  • Annual capital value change for houses was -3.9%, with a 0.9% increase in the past quarter.

• Apartments:

  • Median apartment value was $478,500 at the end of June 2023.
  • Annual capital value change for apartments was +5.5%, with a +3.1% increase in the past quarter.

Rental Performance

• Vacancy Rate:

  • Total residential rental vacancy in Greater Brisbane was 1.0% at the end of June 2023, with 1.1% in the Inner Suburbs, 1.0% in the Middle Suburbs, and 1.1% in the Outer Suburbs.

• Rental Growth:

  • Rents for residential property increased by 3.7% in the quarter to June 2023, and by 13.0% over the past year, reaching a weekly median rent of $565.
  • For houses, weekly median rent was $580, with an 11.5% annual increase.
  • For apartments, weekly median rent was $530, with a 17.8% annual increase.

• Gross Rental Yields:

  • Gross rental yields for residential property increased by 9 bps to 4.63% in Q2 2023.
  • For houses, gross rental yields increased by 7 bps to 4.26%.
  • For apartments, gross rental yields rose by 15 bps to 5.66%.

New Builds

• Building Approvals:
  • In the quarter to June 2023, building approvals totaled 2,498 houses and 1,447 apartments.
  • House approvals were trending down by 12.2%, and apartment approvals were 38.1% lower compared to the previous quarter.

Economic and Financial Forecast

• Economic Growth:

  • Queensland's annual economic growth was 3.2% in 2022, with a forecast of 3.3% in 2025.
  • Greater Brisbane's population change in 2022 was 1.7%, with a forecast of 3.3% annual growth in 2025.

• Unemployment Rate:

  • The Greater Brisbane unemployment rate in June 2023 was 3.3%.

• Cash Rate Target:

  • The official cash rate target in September 2023 was 4.10%, with a forecast of 3.4% by 2025.

• Household Loan Commitments:

  • New household loan commitments in Queensland in the June 2023 quarter were 6.9%.

• First Home Buyer Commitments:

  • There was a -1.5% change in lending commitments to owner occupier first home buyers in Q2 2023.

Market Forecast

• Price Performance Forecast (2023–2025):

  • Knight Frank Research forecasts an average annual price growth of 4% over the next three years, with 3% in 2023, 4% in 2024, and 5% in 2025.

• Rental Market Forecast (2023–2025):

  • Rents are expected to increase by 13% by the end of 2023, 9% in 2024, and 7% in 2025, with an average of 10% growth over the period.

Key Drivers of the Market

Source: Oxford Economics

Summary of Key Trends

• High Demand, Low Supply: Brisbane has the shortest average time on market for residential homes in Australia, leading to increased price growth.
• Rental Market Strength: Rental yields and prices are rising, with a 17.8% annual increase in apartment rents.
• Economic and Policy Factors: Economic growth and interest rates are expected to shape the market in the coming years, with a forecast of 3.3% economic growth and 3.4% cash rate target by 2025.
• New Builds Decline: Building approvals are decreasing, particularly for apartments, indicating a potential shortage of new housing stock.

Contact Information

• Residential Research: Michelle Ciesielski | +612 9036 6659 | michelle.ciesielski@au.knightfrank.com
• Residential Site Sales: Blake Goddard | +617 3246 8848 | blake.goddard@au.knightfrank.com
• Franchise Partnerships: Sally Edvardsen | +612 9036 6845 | sally.edvardsen@au.knightfrank.com
• Residential: Erin van Tuil | +612 9036 6699 | erin.vantuil@au.knightfrank.com
• Residential Project Sales: Luke Hayes | +612 9036 700 | luke.hayes@au.knightfrank.com
• Valuations: Alistair Carpenter | +612 9036 662 | al.carpenter@au.knightfrank.com