20250817-国泰期货-铝_氧化铝产业链周度报告_39页_2mb

Aluminum & Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Report Summary

Research Institute & Co.

Aluminum

Key Points:

• Price Trend: The Shanghai aluminum market remained within the narrow 20500-20700 yuan/ton range, showing a flat trend. The low-volatility phase in the medium-term cycle is still ongoing.
• Policy Outlook: With the "14th Five-Year Plan" nearing its end, the market anticipates proactive policy measures in the early stages of the "15th Five-Year Plan," potentially supporting demand in industrial metals.
• Demand: While inventory accumulated during the week, traditional demand旺季 in September and October may drive prices higher. Smelters are expected to secure export orders to buffer against potential export policy changes.
• Inventory: Aluminum stockpiles increased slightly to 57.100 million tons, while downstream production (like aluminum coils and profiles) continued to decline.

Alumina

Key Points:

• Price Fluctuation: The alumina market experienced a temporary surge following a policy announcement in Shanxi province confirming mixed mine ownership, but actual effects were limited due to low output from related mines.
• Inventory: Stockpiles continued to accumulate, reaching over 300 million tons, with both registered and social inventories rising.
• Profitability: Foundry-grade alumina profitability remained healthy, particularly in regions like Shandong, Henan, and Guangxi.

Overall Outlook

Despite ongoing inventory accumulation and a slight bearish tone, both aluminum and alumina fundamental outlooks remain neutral to bullish in the short term. Key variables such as potential policy adjustments, export dynamics, and end-user demand trends will be crucial for future price movements. The convergence of the aluminum price range may provide opportunities for short-term tactical plays.