20240828-国金证券-通达创智-001368.SZ-体育户外订单如期修复_拓客户打开中期成长空间_4页_891kb

报告摘要

葫芦研究报告摘要

业绩亮点与概览

2024年上半年(H1)，公司实现营业收入47亿元，同比增长21%，归母净利润6.2亿元，同比增长13%，整体业绩基本符合预期。其中，第二季度(Q2)业绩表现更为强劲，营收同比增速达28%。公司拟于2024年第三季度派发最高达90%股息。

增长因子

订单修复与业务拓展：体育户外业务受益于大型客户订单恢复及新品导入，增长迅猛（Q2营收同比+38%）。健康护理业务因基数较低实现高速成长。
财务表现：上半年毛利率28.7%（较去年同期提升0.3pct），但费用率上升影响了净利率，Q2净利率维持在13.47%。
产品与渠道优势：作为领先的ODM/OEM制造商，公司在产品设计、制造工艺方面和技术整合能力方面优势显著，与迪卡侬、宜家等龙头企业合作关系稳固。
地区性布局：积极在马来西亚建立生产基地，旨在保障供应链安全，巩固客户合作，为中长期稳健增长奠定基础。

未来展望与估值

预测公司2024-2026年归母净利润将复合增长约26%，对应24年市盈率(P/E)约15倍。研究机构普遍维持“买入”评级。当前风险因素包括贸易政策变动、汇率及原材料价格波动以及市场竞争加剧。

Summary:

Key Highlights & Overview: The company reported 47 billion yuan in revenue for 2024H1, up 21% year-over-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 620 million yuan, up 13%. Second-quarter performance was stronger, with revenue growth accelerating to 28% year-over-year. The target of distributing up to 90% of shareholder net profit via dividends in Q3 was announced.

Growth Factors:

Order Recovery & Business Expansion: The Sports & Outdoors segment, benefiting from orders resuming with major customers and new product launches, achieved strong growth (+38% YTD revenue). The Healthcare segment saw high growth due to a low base.
Financial Performance: Gross margin improved slightly to 28.7% (up 0.3ppt from last year). However, rising operating costs impacted net margins, with Q2 net margin holding steady at 13.47%.
Product & Channel Advantages: As a leading ODM/OEM platform for outdoor & home furnishings, the company excels in product design, process integration, and partnerships with global leaders like Decathlon and IKEA.
Regional Presence: Proactive expansion in Malaysia aims to secure supply chains, deepen customer ties, and support medium-to-long-term stable growth.

Outlook & Valuation:
Consensus holds a 26% annualized growth forecast for 2024-2026 net profits (with estimated figures). A 2024 P/E ratio of approximately 15 is implied currently. Analysts generally maintain a "Buy" recommendation. Key risks include potential trade policy changes, currency fluctuations, raw material price volatility, and increased competition.

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