20230521-浙商证券-房地产及物管行业周报2023年W20_杭州限购政策再放松_市场成交环比下降_26页_1mb

Industry Overview

This report covers the week ending May 20, 2023 (Week 20, 2023513-519) for the real estate and property management sectors. It analyzes policy changes, market fundamentals, sector performance, and future outlook, with a focus on China's housing market.

Policy Environment: Key policies include the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development establishing a red blacklist for property services and ongoing relaxations of demand-side restrictions. Local measures, such as adjustments in housing公积金 loans in cities like Yinchuan and property subsidies in Hui City, aim to boost sales. Hangzhou further eased限购 policies, indicating potential for more relaxations in core cities.

Market Fundamentals: The market showed a decline, with 30 major cities seeing a 1042% drop in new home sales compared to the previous week, suggesting cooling despite year-over-year growth. Second-tier cities had the sharpest decline, while stock prices in real estate and related sectors performed poorly, down significantly compared to benchmarks. Land market activity increased slightly, with higher supply and sales in third-tier cities.

Analyst Views: Analysts recommend developers with strong urban agglomeration focus (e.g., Vanke, Poly Development) and property management companies like Peach and Green Living, citing easing credit risks and potential recovery. However, a gradual improvement is expected, with sales possibly rebounding by May-June.

Risks: Key risks include delayed developer funding, slow financing progress, and insufficient market recovery. Despite slight improvements in credit indicators, credit risks remain a concern.

• Performance Summary: The real estate sector saw sharp declines, with A-share indices down 396% and Hong Kong stock indices for property services falling 459%, underperforming broader markets. Sales momentum weakened but remains positive year-to-year.

Conclusions and Implications

The market is cooling but shows resilience, with policy support and credit easing expected to drive moderate recovery. Targeted investments in specific developers and property management firms are advised, while monitoring ongoing risks.